The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the decision by Opec+ to cut oil output from next month risks tipping the global economy into recession and higher crude prices will increase energy security risks worldwide, the Financial Times reports. Last week, the move by the cartel of oil producing nations and allies – including Russia – to cut their production target by 2m barrels a day “has reverberated around the world”, the paper explains. In its monthly oil report, the IEA says: “The Opec+ bloc’s plan to sharply curtail oil supplies to the market has derailed the growth trajectory of oil supply through the remainder of this year and next, with the resulting higher price levels exacerbating market volatility and heightening energy security concerns.” It adds: “With unrelenting inflationary pressures and interest rate hikes taking their toll, higher oil prices may prove the tipping point for a global economy already on the brink of recession.” The IEA’s report also notes that higher oil prices stemming from the decision by Opec+ and the “relentless deterioration of the economy” means it expects global oil demand to contract by 340,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter compared with that period of 2021, the Times reports. The Hill and Reuters also has the story.

At the same time, the FT also reports that the White House yesterday “dismissed Saudi Arabia’s claims that recent Opec+ production cuts had nothing to do with the kingdom’s stance on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as ‘spin’, as the rift between the two states over oil prices deepens”. Referring to Saudi Arabia’s argument that last week’s cuts had been decided on a purely economic basis, John Kirby, a spokesperson for the US National Security Council, said: “The Saudi foreign ministry can try to spin or deflect, but the facts are simple.“ He added: “In recent weeks, the Saudis conveyed to us – privately and publicly – their intention to reduce oil production, which they knew would increase Russian revenues and blunt the effectiveness of sanctions. That is the wrong direction.” Kirby noted that the US had heard from other Opec nations privately that “they also disagree with the Saudi decision, but felt coerced to support Saudi’s direction”, the paper explains: “According to people familiar with the discussions, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Bahrain were among the Opec+ members that were uncomfortable with the reductions, although none made their dissent public.” Reuters also has the story, while the Guardian has an explainer on why the US is “so angry” about the supply cuts. A Reuters analysis piece says: “Despite the testy exchanges, both sides face constraints in how to pressure each other in practice, according to interviews with analysts and experts in the Gulf. Washington will not want to do anything to risk the security of the kingdom’s oil sector, any damage to which would send prices spiralling even higher and possibly drive Riyadh closer to China and Russia.”

In the run up to the COP27 climate summit in Egypt next month, US officials are working to broker “multibillion-dollar plans to steer some of the world’s most populous countries to cleaner forms of energy”, reports Bloomberg. In an interview yesterday, John Kerry, the US special presidential envoy for climate, said: “We’re very much engaged in negotiating with Indonesia, with Vietnam, with South Africa and Mexico…There’s a lot of energy going into these efforts.” Kerry will visit Vietnam next week and will travel to Mexico again before the UN climate summit in November, Bloomberg says, which “comes amid ongoing negotiations with Indonesia and work to develop a detailed investment plan for a landmark $8.5bn initiative to shift South Africa’s power system away from coal”. Kerry added: “We’re creating a formula by which countries are able to embrace real transformation to move to a clean energy economy.”

Separately, the environment director at advocacy group Human Rights Watch has warned that Egyptian regime has successfully silenced the country’s independent environmentalists ahead of COP27, reports the Guardian. Speaking to the paper, Richard Pearshouse said: “Outspoken, independent, strident voices have by and large been silenced, exiled or coralled into working in safe, less-damaging environmental spaces that match the government’s priorities. Topics the government considers sensitive are now environmental red zones or no-go areas in Egypt – and in other repressive regimes.”

The head of Ofgem has confirmed that the UK energy regulator will launch a new campaign to help people understand how they can reduce their energy use and slash bills this winter, the Press Association reports. Speaking at a conference organised by trade body Energy UK in London yesterday, Jonathan Brearley said: “All of us could be thinking about how to reduce our energy use where possible.” He added: “Ofgem is working with the energy sector and interested groups to help consumers navigate this information and we will shortly be launching a campaign to explain the support available, how to reduce energy consumption, and what customers should expect from their providers.” The Daily Telegraph notes that Brearley’s comments come “a day after Liz Truss indicated the business secretary was working on a plan to help companies and individuals use energy more efficiently, amid a row over reports she had blocked an earlier energy saving campaign”. At the same conference, UK climate minister Graham Stuart said that the country was unlikely to face power cuts this winter, reports Reuters. Stuart said: “Our system should cope. It’s very unlikely that we will see the conditions that would lead to blackouts.“ Also speaking at the conference, Energy UK boss Emma Pinchbeck called on the government to proceed “carefully” when putting a cap on how much revenue wind farms can make to avoid repeating past mistakes which put off investment in the UK, reports the Press Association. She said: “It seems scarcely believable to me that we would make the same mistakes again with, for example, reforms that make it harder or ban cheap solar power.”

Meanwhile, technology groups have warned of the possibility of mobile phone and broadband blackouts this winter, which could leave people unable to make emergency calls in the event of power cuts, the Times reports. It continues: “In a stark warning, techUK, the technology trade association, and Mobile UK, which represents the mobile network operators, said that the mobile and broadband networks are vulnerable to outages and that limited and often patchy backup generators will lead to intermittent coverage.” Gareth Elliott, a spokesman for Mobile UK, said: “Anyone who uses the phone network will be affected. In terms of connectivity, it won’t be a question of just switching on your mobile’s 4G when your home broadband goes down.”

The Times also reports that the government has confirmed that costs of dealing with the failed energy supplier Bulb will, ultimately, be levied on consumer energy bills rather than funded through general taxation. Bulb was Britain’s seventh biggest domestic energy supplier, with 1.6m household customers, when it collapsed last November after failing to hedge against soaring wholesale prices, the paper explains. In correspondence published yesterday, energy minister Graham Stuart said the government intended to recover “any shortfall to the exchequer” in the sale of Bulb “via the shortfall mechanism placed on suppliers”, the paper reports. Labour MP Darren Jones, chair of the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) select committee, said: “It is bewildering that, at a time when average household energy prices are still double what they were a year ago, ministers intend to increase bills further,” reports the Independent.

In other UK energy news, the Guardian reports that a Conservative-led council in Lancashire has voted unanimously to demand the government stick to its manifesto commitment against fracking, and to demand clarity on what constitutes “local consent” for the controversial form of energy extraction. The Guardian also reports that Labour has criticised prime minister Liz Truss’s plan to ban solar power from most of England’s farmland and vowed to treble the renewable energy source in its first term. At a visit a solar farm today, shadow climate secretary Ed Miliband will accuse Truss of trying to “destroy the solar industry” and argue this will “make the UK energy sector even more insecure”, the paper says.

Finally, the Guardian has factchecked claims by Graham Stuart that domestic drilling for oil and gas is “good for the environment”. It notes that “analysis from Rystad Energy suggests UK oil rigs are among the highest carbon emitters in Europe”.

Former German chancellor Angela Merkel said yesterday that she had no regrets about the course her government took with its energy policy and Russia during her time in power, reports Reuters, “which critics say left Europe’s biggest economy too dependent on Russian gas”. Speaking to reporters in Lisbon, Merkel said she “do[es] not regret decisions at all, rather, I believe that it was right from the perspective of the time”, adding that cheap Russian gas had allowed Germany to push ahead with phasing out nuclear and coal.

Meanwhile, Politico reports on a newly declassified security assessment on the Nord Stream 2 – adopted in the final days of Merkel’s outgoing government in October last year – that claimed energy supplies “won’t be jeopardised” by increased dependency on Russian gas. Politico adds: “The controversial opinion displays an exceedingly naive view of the risks posed by Germany’s significant reliance on Russian gas deliveries, which had continuously grown in the years prior to Moscow’s war. It also rejects concerns by Eastern European partners like Poland and Ukraine, which had long warned the Nord Stream 2 undersea pipeline designed to carry natural gas directly from Russia to northern Germany would increase the risk of energy blackmail by Russian president Vladimir Putin.”

In further news from Germany, the Financial Times reports that deputy chancellor Robert Habeck has hit out at critics of the €200bn energy support package Berlin unveiled last month, denying it was “selfish” and insisting it will help protect the whole European economy. The FT explains that “some EU member states reacted with surprise and irritation at the German relief package, saying it risked distorting the bloc’s single market. Berlin was accused of failing to properly co-ordinate its response to the energy crisis with its European partners”. In an interview, Habeck responded: “If Germany were to experience a really deep recession, it would drag the whole of Europe down with it…We’re not being selfish – we’re trying to stabilise an economy at the heart of Europe.”

Elsewhere, Reuters reports on a draft document that suggests European Union country leaders may support plans to launch a new gas price benchmark at a meeting next week, as they seek to curb energy prices for consumers and industries. Leaders are set to meet on 20-21 October, “days after the European Commission intends to propose measures to tackle an energy crisis that is driving inflation and damaging economies across the bloc”, the newswire explains. A draft of their meeting conclusions, seen by Reuters, said EU leaders would agree to “develop a new benchmark that more accurately reflects conditions on the gas market”. Reuters also reports that Greece and four other EU countries yesterday “made a joint request to the European Commission to explore two options to cap soaring gas prices and propose possible solutions in a bid to tame surging energy costs”. At the same time, Russian president Vladimir Putin yesterday touted Turkey as the best route for redirecting gas supplies to the European Union after Nord Stream pipeline leaks, reports Reuters.

In other European energy news, Reuters analysis suggests that “European electricity use is falling to levels seen during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic although some countries need to curb consumption further to prepare for a possible energy supply crunch this winter”. And Politico reports on a new long-range weather forecast by the Copernicus Climate Change Service at the European Centre for Mid-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) that suggests there is a “higher than usual chance” of Europe experiencing a significant cold snap before Christmas.

Singapore-based CNA (Channel News Asia) says that extreme weather and “economic headwinds” have “highlighted challenges” for China as it “chases” its long-term clean energy targets. It adds that while analysts say China is “likely to hit its renewable energy generation target, getting there will take time”. Another “concern” is the “higher costs” of renewable energy, though “there are hopes this can change as China expands its clean energy capabilities”, the broadcaster adds. Meanwhile, the South China Morning Post writes that the carbon footprint of China’s digital infrastructure industry is under “increased scrutiny as Beijing adjusts policies and pushes the power-hungry sector to decarbonise in pursuit of the national goal of carbon neutrality by 2060”. It adds that China now lists the sector as a “key decarbonisation target” alongside “traditional heavy-emitting industries”.

Separately, China Development Bank has “boosted its financial support for energy development in the first three quarters” of 2022, the state-run newspaper China Daily reports. It adds that the bank “issued 406.9bn yuan ($57.2bn) of loans in the energy sector” between January and September to “support clean-energy development, energy supply guarantee, and clean and efficient coal use”. Meanwhile, Dai Bing, China’s deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, has “urged developed countries to honor their climate financing commitments to Africa” during a UN debate, reports the state news agency Xinhua.

In other news, Shanghai-based financial outlet Yicai reports that China Merchants Industry has become the “fifth” Chinese shipbuilder to be “certified to build large liquefied natural gas carrier vessels” as purchase orders for China-made LNG carriers” surge amid growing demand for more sea transportation of the gas rather than overland”. China Dialogue carries two articles. The first article focuses on an action plan for energy standardisation released by the National Energy Administration (NEA) on 9 October. The other article focuses on the 2025 targets for “installed wind and solar and energy storage of 30 provincial jurisdictions”. Finally, Caixin Global has an article explaining “what to look out for at the 20th Party National Congress”.

UK prime minister Liz Truss’s “anti-solar scheme is so ill-judged that all voices raised against it are welcome”, says a Guardian editorial, commenting on business secretary Jacob Rees-Mogg’s decision to pen an article for the paper yesterday “to deny that he opposes green energy”. However, the editorial continues, “Rees-Mogg’s enthusiasm for new oil and gas means that he must never be mistaken for a friend to green causes”. It continues: “His backing for solar and wind may make him a more consistent free-marketeer than the prime minister – who is against red tape except when it blocks something she dislikes – the risks to the environment from all those like him who champion growth at the expense of nature remain huge.” Renewed enthusiasm for fossil fuel projects is “one aspect of this government’s reactionary and dangerous agenda”, the paper says, adding: “Two more are the promises to scrap hundreds of environmental regulations governing areas such as water quality (already shockingly poor), and to remove wildlife protections from new low-tax investment zones. The decision to review a post-Brexit farming payments scheme that took six years to set up – and which has already led to enhanced protection for wildlife in pilot areas – offers further proof of the government’s disdain for all things green.”

Europe is “mishandling the energy crisis Russia has inflicted on it”, says an editorial in the Economist, which warns that “its failures could not only harm Europe, but also sap public support for the war effort”. While the EU’s gas-storage facilities are over 90% full and October looks likely to be unseasonably warm, “this balmy picture is fuelling complacency”, the outlet says: “Long-range weather forecasts suggest November and December could be cold. And gas storage is not enough to replace lost Russian inflows. If these fall to zero, normal energy consumption would leave storage perilously low by March, which can be chilly. Cold weather in Asia or a rebound in China’s economy may make LNG [liquefied natural gas] dearer. And a huge challenge looms in preparing for the winter of 2023-24. Europe needs to refill its storage all over again, but this time possibly without any Russian gas. Every unit of stored gas that Europe burns now is one it must replace next year.” Curbing demand is “an urgent task”, the editorial says, “yet governments have so far focused on subsidising energy prices and protecting households and businesses from the shock”. Another option is boosting supply, but “governments have been dragging their feet here, too”. However, “most short-sighted is Europe’s failure to take advantage of its own gas reserves”, the Economist warns: “Europe’s politicians must stop acting as if the energy shortage is a one-winter affair that can be weathered by handing out subsidies. Unless they redouble their efforts to bring supply and demand into balance, they risk a worse and more costly energy crisis in 2023 or beyond – one for which Ukraine could end up paying a big share of the price.” The Economist also has an article on how the threat of energy blackouts in the UK is forcing “a rethink on gas storage”.

In his regular Daily Telegraph column, the climate-sceptic Conservative peer Lord David Frost takes aim at a House of Lords’ Environment Committee report on behavioural change and net-zero. He describes it as “the essence of the anti-growth coalition”, adding that it is “[a]bout as in tune with normal human nature as the Anti-Sex League in 1984, and about as likely to achieve its results without hectoring, lecturing, and compulsion”.

An editorial in the Daily Telegraph criticises London mayor Sadiq Khan for not giving police additional powers to “deal with” the Just Stop Oil activists, who have been disrupting traffic in the capital. The paper complains of “confusing court rulings and pusillanimous politicians”, adding: “Sir Mark Rowley, the Metropolitan Police commissioner, has asked Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, to seek injunctions to prevent the demonstrations taking place at all. He has declined to do so. This leaves the police to fall back on powers under the recent Public Order Act, which requires that a protest must cause ‘serious disruption to the life of the community’ before action can be taken.” It concludes: “The matter is complicated further by a Supreme Court human rights ruling known as the Ziegler judgment, which has been treated almost as carte blanche by the activists to do as they please. If the way through this imbroglio is for injunctions to be sought to stop the gatherings taking place, it is incumbent on Mr Khan to do so. The London mayor needs to decide who he represents, a tiny group of zealots or the law-abiding people of the capital.”

From the end of the 19th century to the 1980s, wheat productivity in Australia was mainly determined by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), new research finds. The authors use a crop model and a machine learning algorithm to demonstrate the changing impacts of climate variability on Australian wheat yields. They find that since the 1990s, the impacts from the ENSO have been decreasing, while those from the Indian Ocean Dipole have been increasing. “The warming climate has brought more occurrences of positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, resulting in severe yield reductions in recent decades,” they say.