As UK temperatures hit 30C this weekend, forecasters said the chances of the UK experiencing a “hot summer” are now at 45% – 2.3 times higher than the average figure, the Observer reports. However, there are yet “no strong indicators” that the UK will again see temperatures of 40C, the current record temperature observed during last year’s heatwave, a Met Office spokesperson tells the Observer. Reporting on heat this weekend, Sky News says that at least three soldiers fainted during a royal military parade. It adds that, according to the Met Office, this weekend was the earliest in the year that the UK has hit 30C for two decades. BBC News reports that UK firefighters are preparing to deploy new techniques learnt from colleagues in the Mediterranean, as “climate change raises the risk level in the UK this summer”. The Times reports on a letter to environment secretary Thérèse Coffey from 37 environmental groups who warn that the country’s water companies have “woefully inadequate” plans to deal with drought. The Press Association says that concerns have been raised about water levels at Loch Ness, which are currently at their lowest since records began in 1990. 

Reacting to the heat warnings, an editorial in the often climate-sceptic comment pages of the Daily Telegraph says: “We do not need warnings whenever the thermometer shows what most people would regard as a perfectly normal summer temperature.” 

The Sunday Times reports that the UK Labour party will “rip up planning rules” to speed up the construction of onshore wind farms and nuclear power plants, if it wins the next election. The paper reports: “Projects judged critical to national energy infrastructure will be given priority for approval and the presumption will be shifted towards getting big projects built.” As part of Labour’s plans, “national planning policy statements will be updated to promote clean power development”, “tough new targets will be set to ensure decisions do not take months or even years, with a new framework to monitor decision times” and “a directorate will be set up in the government to ensure departments and others who have to be consulted about planning reform do so quickly and the process remains on track”, according to the Sunday Times. It adds: “However, it is understood that some in the party would like to go further so that towns and villages lose a veto over developments. Such a move would be controversial, but many of the areas affected are likely to be in Tory rural seats so radical change would be easier for Labour than the Conservatives, who were forced to drop national targets for housebuilding after a rebellion by backbenchers.” It adds that the scheme will be part of a wider “climate announcement” made by Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer later this month.  BBC News is among publications reporting that shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves was forced to make clear that Labour’s pledge to invest £28bn a year until 2030 in low-carbon industries, first made in 2021, would be achieved by a gradual ramping up between 2024 and 2027, rather than an instant annual spend of £28bn. BBC News’ headline describes this as Labour “watering down” its pledge.

Elsewhere, the Guardian reports on DeSmog analysis finding UK fossil fuel imports from authoritarian petrostates surged to £19.3bn in the year following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Daily Mirror covers a suggestion from a cross-party group of MPs to use water in disused coal mines to heat homes “cheaply and cleanly”. BBC News reports that the MP for Selby and Ainsty Nigel Adams, a key ally of Boris Johnson, has resigned – triggering a by-election in the seat which is home to the Drax power station. 

Many US publications report one of the country’s first-ever climate change trials begins today in Helena, Montana – where 16 young people are seeking to hold the state account for fossil-fuel policies they argue have violated their constitutional right to a “clean and healthy environment”. Explaining the case, Time reports: “In Held v. Montana, which was brought forward by 16 Montana youth as young as five, plaintiffs argue that state legislators have put the interests of the state’s fossil fuel industry over their climate future. Legal experts say that if plaintiffs win, the case could be used to bolster climate change efforts in other states. The so-called Treasure State is home to legendary landmarks such as Yellowstone National Park, but also has the largest recoverable coal reserves in the country. Montana legislators have continuously enacted measures to benefit the fossil fuel industry, as Governor Greg Gianforte signed a new law in May that bars regulators like the Montana Department of Environmental Quality from looking at the climate impacts of proposed projects that should have environmental reviews, like coal mines or power plants.” The trial is expected to take two weeks, Scientific American adds.

It is estimated that during this year’s “summer peak” period, the maximum demand for electricity for five provinces in southern China could reach 245 gigawatts, representing a year-on-year growth of 10%, Southern Power Grid Power tells the China Securities Journal. Several state-owned energy enterprises are “fully mobilising efforts to ensure electricity supply”, the Chinese financial outlet highlights. It adds that with a series of supportive policies in place, China’s coal and electricity supplies are generally guaranteed during the peak summer, citing industry insiders. Yicai reports that the “blue energy policy guideline” recently published by the Chinese government “encourages the establishment of new power systems aligned with the country’s large-scale new energy development”. 

Meanwhile, China Daily, citing Russian news agency TASS, reports that Russia ratified an agreement with China on the “cooperation for natural gas supplies from Russia to China via the far east route”. The state-run newspaper highlights that oil and gas trade between the two countries is expected to further increase in 2023. Cao Lujia, an analyst with BloombergNEF, is quoted saying that once the project achieves maximum capacity, Russia will annually deliver 10bn cubic metres of gas to China for 25 years. Bloomberg writes that China’s economic recovery is experiencing setbacks as the country’s leading importers of liquefied “natural” gas (LNG) show no interest in acquiring additional spot cargoes.

In other news, China witnessed a 35% increase in “green bond” issuance last year, reaching a record high of $155bn, writes the South China Morning Post, according to a report released last Friday by the UK-based NGO Climate Bonds Initiative. This growth comes “as the country is deepening the integration of climate commitments within its overall policy and economic framework”, the outlet highlights.

The Economic Daily, a Chinese communist party-affiliated newspaper, carries an editorial by the Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment, titled: “Building a harmonious and symbiotic modernisation between humans and nature.” CNN reports that the US secretary of treasury Janet Yellen said “US wants to collaborate with China on pressing global issues, including climate crisis” during a private meeting with business leaders last Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter. 

Finally, Xinhua carries a comment saying that “promoting green development under the framework of the China-proposed Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) will boost global efforts to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development goals”, citing Pakistani experts. 

Around 13,000 people took to the streets of Erding in Bavaria on Saturday to protest against a law promoted by the Green Party to replace oil and gas heaters from next year, reports Deutsche Welle. It notes that Bavaria’s state premier Markus Söder, from the centre-right Christian Social Union (CSU), was the protest’s main speaker. Politicians from the Free Democrats (FDP) – the pro-business party from the ruling coalition – were also there opposing the law, adds the outlet. However, it adds that supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party booed Söder, shouting at him to “get lost”. Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung reports that the climate-sceptic AfD, which wants Germany to reject the Paris Agreement and a return to nuclear power, is against the “heat transition”. The party recently levelled in the polls with the SPD, the German chancellor’s party, at 18%. Nevertheless, Die Zeit reports that economy minister Robert Habeck wants to introduce an important exception to the ban on installing oil and gas heating systems: homeowners should not have to install a heat pump when replacing their heating system if their streets or districts are connected to the district heating network in the future. Politico reports that the Greens, wanting Germany to switch to heat pumps, have struggled to install such a device in its own party headquarters for years.

Meanwhile, Bild carries an interview with Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), who says that “Germany should not think that it can permanently replace Russian gas and nuclear power with coal”, adding that he “would not have shut down nuclear power plants in Germany” and calls for the expansion of renewables and hydrogen. 

There continues to be a wave of editorials and comment pieces in UK newspapers on the Labour party’s upcoming climate policy announcements. An analysis by Guardian carries reaction from UK scientists and campaigners to the news that Labour, if elected, now plans to gradually ramp up government investment in low-carbon industries rather than instantly spending (see above). Prof Cameron Hepburn, director of the Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment at the University of Oxford, tells the newspaper: “Fiscal prudence matters. Borrowing for a consumption binge is foolish, particularly in the current economic climate. But borrowing to invest in productive assets is a different matter, especially when those assets deliver cheaper energy and new jobs. The sooner we get on with decarbonising the economy, the better.” Prof Sam Fankhauser, also of the Smith School, adds: “By delaying the investment, Labour will also delay the returns – economic, environmental and social.” Also in the Guardian, Greenpeace’s head of politics Rebecca Newsom says a delay to green spending would be “foolish”. She adds: “Doing so would not only be a mistake for our economy and the climate, but also threaten Labour’s electoral prospects, given strong public demand for bold action on this issue.” Conversely, an editorial in the Times says that delaying spending on green industrial measures “shows a belated awareness of fiscal constraints”. An in-depth analysis in the Sunday Times says the move shows that “fiscal prudence is now everything for Labour”. In City AM, energy reporter Nicholas Earl says: “Reeves will catch a lot of flak for her U-turn from green groups and the left of her party, but her decision reflects rampant interest rates, the war in Ukraine and the disastrous fallout of the mini-budget from the Liz Truss government.”

Writing in the Daily Mirror, shadow net-zero secretary Ed Miliband sets out more details of Labour’s upcoming climate strategy, saying: “Labour will chart a different course. We have a world-leading green prosperity plan to double onshore wind, triple solar power and quadruple offshore wind to get cheap, clean, homegrown power for Britain by 2030. Your electricity bills won’t be at the mercy of the political thugs of the world. We will continue to use the existing fields of our North Sea oil and gas for decades to come, but we won’t be issuing licences to explore new fields, which won’t take a penny off bills and are a climate disaster.” 

Taking a different tact, an opinion article in the Daily Mail by home secretary Suella Braverman – which is reported on the paper’s front page – accuses Starmer of being in the “pocket of the eco mob” for his party’s opposition to her proposal to impose further legal restrictions on climate activists. An accompanying editorial in the Daily Mail says: “[Starmer] quivers with indignity when is accused of being in the pocket of Just Stop Oil, the criminal environmental cult which is waging a war on working people. He denies it, but let’s look at the evidence. After tycoon Dale Vince, who bankrolls the eco-zealots, bunged Labour £1.5m, the party announced plans to ban North Sea drilling…Now we learn Keir is to order his MPs to vote against Braverman’s fresh crackdown on disruptive road-blocking protests.” An editorial in the Sun – its ninth in as many days – takes a similar view, saying: “Labour wanted to gamble a monstrous £28bn a year in borrowed money on a ‘green industrial revolution’ dreamed up by Ed Miliband, a man voters rejected in 2015 as incompetent. Reeves considers the idea reckless now that global interest rates have risen. So Starmer has shelved it. Trouble is, he is also now committed to banning new UK oil and gas development, exactly as his Just Stop Oil allies demanded.” [See Carbon Brief’s factcheck on why banning North Sea oil and gas is not a Just Stop oil plan.] Also writing in the Daily Mail, climate-sceptic broadcaster Andrew Neil says that “Starmer might have to sack Miliband to stop his net-zero obsession costing Labour another election”. A Daily Telegraph column by assistant editor Jeremy Warner says Labour is “making a mistake by making net-zero an election issue”. Going even further, a separate Daily Telegraph column by climate-sceptic commentator Charles Moore says: “Net-zero isn’t working – but Conservatives refuse to grasp the nettle.” The Daily Telegraph also carries a comment article by climate-sceptic commentator Capell Aris headlined: “Britain’s green energy disaster should be an awful warning to Americans.” Writing in the Times, business journalist Ian King writes that “the backlash against the green economy is under way as it dawns on households that the energy transition is likely, at least in the short term, to cost them more”.

There also continues to be lots of comment and reaction to Canada’s large wildfires, which have sent smoke billowing over some of North America’s most largest cities. A Washington Post article explores whether there is evidence that the world has now entered a new era defined by unprecedented fires. It says: “In the years to come, scientists say, climate-charged megafires will continue to be a part of life – and death. The emissions from fires are serious, but the air pollution impacts are even more so. Invisible, fine pieces of particulate matter can seep into the throat, the lungs and even the brain. About 10 million people every year are killed by air pollution.” Elsewhere in the Washington Post, reporter Justine McDaniel examines whether Canada’s fires could shift American views on climate change. She says: “Whether the 2023 smoke emergency will lead people to take action – such as calling political representatives, joining environmental organisations or changing personal habits – is far from clear, experts said.” Also examining whether the fires could change US climate policy, researcher Prof David Montana writes in Politico: “In a successful democracy, opening Washington’s eyes literally to climate change like this would open the eyes figuratively of the leaders of the federal government to the planet’s problems. During a different time, the smog that covered Eastern cities like Washington in the 1960s was part of what led to the enactment of the Air Quality Act of 1967 and the Clean Air Act in 1970. But today, our politics are so settled – and so stuck – that moments that even open our eyes in Washington do not change the laws coming from Washington.” Axios also explores the question of whether US policymakers could increase their urgency in light of the smoke.

Elsewhere, an analysis in the Guardian says the fires bring climate change home for average Americans. Climate scientist Prof Mike Mann and science communicator Susan Joy Hassol write in the Independent that the current wildfires are a “preview of things to come”. Dr Hannah Ritchie examines the data of how wildfire risk is changing on her platform Sustainability by Numbers, citing Carbon Brief’s explainer on how climate change is affecting wildfire risk globally. It comes as the Spectator carries a comment piece by omnipresent climate-sceptic commentator Ross Clark which pedals misleading tropes about climate change and wildfires. See Carbon Brief’s media analysis on the Canadian wildfires for more information.

While there is an increasing number of individual studies looking at climate change adaptation among Indigenous groups, a comprehensive understanding of adaptation trends is absent from the literature, according to a new study. The authors examined 140 peer-reviewed journal articles involving Indigenous people globally. Among their findings were that the most common adaptation strategy is agricultural practices, the most pressing adaptation driver is Indigenous knowledge and traditions and the most cited barrier is governance. The study will help inform adaptation plans, the paper concludes, though the findings highlight the need for additional research in vulnerable populations in the Pacific Islands and Central and South America.

A new study looking at how well Earth System Models (ESMs) estimate the effects of deforestation on surface temperature and biophysical processes finds that although they reliably capture the sign of the temperature response, they tend to over- or under-estimate the magnitude. The authors evaluated four ESMs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) alongside satellite observations and found differences in how the models represent energy and water exchanges between the land and atmosphere via, for example, how effective snow-covered surfaces are at reflecting solar energy – known as albedo. These results will help fine-tune how ESMs are used to represent deforestation effects, the paper notes.