Senior officials in the Trump administration are drafting settlement agreements that would pay nearly $1bn in compensation to TotalEnergies for cancelling the leases of two proposed windfarms in the waters off New York state and North Carolina, according to the New York Times. The newspaper says the proposed agreement – which it has “reviewed” – would see the US justice department pay more than $928m to the French fossil fuel giant after the interior department cancelled the leases of the two projects, which are earmarked for federal waters. In exchange, TotalEnergies would abandon the plans to begin building the wind farms and commit to investing in gas infrastructure in Texas. The New York Times says the plan “reveal[s] a significant shift in the Trump administration’s approach to targeting the country’s nascent offshore wind sector following [a] series of legal setbacks”. Reuters picks up the story.

Bloomberg reports on the impacts of war on US farmers, who it describes as “one of Donald Trump’s most loyal constituencies”. It says the new “financial strain on American agriculture driven by the war” could have “significant ramifications” for the US midterm elections. Sources reportedly told Reuters that Trump has invited farmers and biofuel producers to the White House next week as the administration works to finalise new biofuel blending quotas for 2026 and 2027. The quotas, which determine how much renewable fuel must be blended into US fuel supply, have “sweeping implications” for the energy and agricultural sectors, according to the newswire. It adds that US refiners have made a “last-minute push to persuade the administration to temper” increases agreed last year. 

MORE ON US

• Trump said he wanted “no windmills” built in the US during his presidency, arguing they were “very bad environmentally”, reports Bloomberg.
• A new lawsuit opposing the breakup of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) alleges that the move is “part of a Trump administration retribution effort against the state of Colorado”, according to the Hill.
• Six months before the US started bombing Iran, the administration laid off staff who would have been responsible for gaming out possible scenarios if the Strait of Hormuz was closed, reports US news outlet NOTUS.
• The Los Angeles Times says that Southern California entered its second day of the “potentially worst heatwave for March ever”, with temperatures reaching 97F (36C). The Associated Press also reports on the “rare winter heatwave” in the US west. 
• The Guardian reports that oil has begun to flow from a “controversial” oil pipeline in California for the first time in a decade after a Trump administrative order. 
• New York governor Kathy Hochul has said that the state needs more time to achieve the greenhouse gas goals in its 2019 climate law, reports Politico.

There is an abundance of coverage looking at how countries reliant on oil and gas transported through the blocked Strait of Hormuz are responding to the war. In Asia, Reuters reports that industry officials have confirmed plans to boost coal-power generation in Bangladesh, Pakistan, the Philippines, South Korea and Vietnam. It adds that gas has accounted for a “declining share” of Asia’s power generation for nearly a decade due to “surging renewables usage”. The Associated Press has a round-up of energy-saving measures introduced by governments in Asia – including a four-day work week in the Philippines and a work-from-home push in Vietnam. It says that analysts have warned that the “same hard choices” could soon spread to “fuel-importing economies in Africa and elsewhere”. Bloomberg says the war is triggering a “hunt” for “new fuel supplies in Africa”.

The Economist says that, despite renewables and “vast stockpiles” of crude, China “cannot shield its economy entirely” from the shock. It says: “Higher costs will ripple through supply chains and raise freight costs”. In an article looking at the countries most vulnerable to oil shock, Forbes notes that China will add about 500 terawatt hours of new renewable generation this year, which will cover “the entirety of its electricity demand growth” and be “helpful for offsetting missing oil and [liquefied natural gas] from Hormuz”. BBC News considers whether the conflict will “squeeze” India’s “rapidly expanding network of piped natural gas”.

This comes against a backdrop of oil prices rising again after Iran’s “successfully attacked” energy infrastructure in Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), reports the Guardian. On Tuesday, Brent crude – the international benchmark oil price – climbed 3% to $103.2 (£77.52) a barrel, marking a near-50% increase since the start of war, it says. Meanwhile, wholesale gas prices rose nearly 3% to €52 (£45) a megawatt hour, compared with about €30 before the conflict. Bloomberg reports that in the US, diesel prices have reached $5 a gallon for the first time since November 2022 and are up by “more than a third” since the start of the war. Separately, Bloomberg says that UK petrol prices have reached their highest point since the start of the war, with petrol at its highest level since August 2024 and diesel at its highest since “late 2023”. 

MORE ON OIL SHOCK

• Financial Times: “Drone-struck Russian LNG tanker threatens ‘ecological disaster’ in Mediterranean.”
• Slovakia’s government is considering regulation to set higher diesel prices for foreign drivers, or limiting their refuelling, says Reuters.
• Germany has introduced a new law which restricts gas station operators from increasing petrol and diesel prices only once per day, according to Bloomberg.
• Forbes: “Economists have warned rising oil prices may push US into a recession.”
• Norwegian airline SAS said it was cancelling a “limited number” of short-term flights due to high fuel prices, reports Bloomberg.
• The Guardian: “How Pakistan’s people-led solar boom is easing impact of Middle East energy crisis.”
• The International Atomic Energy Agency said it had received a report that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant complex was hit by a projectile, but there were no injuries and the plant suffered no damage, reports the Associated Press. The newswire also has a separate Q&A about the nuclear complex.

Bloomberg covers a warning from the World Food Programme that 45 million extra people could face hunger if the Iran war does not ease by the middle of the year. The statement stated that “increasing energy, fuel and fertiliser costs” could push 363 million people into food insecurity, according to Bloomberg. In an explainer on how the conflict is impacting fertiliser supply and costs, Reuters notes that one-third of the world’s fertiliser passes through the blocked Strait of Hormuz, alongside 20% of the world’s LNG, a key feedstock for fertiliser. The closure of the channel means that “fertiliser plants in the Gulf and ​beyond” have shut, it says. “Around half” of the world’s food is grown with fertiliser, according to the newswire. In the Financial Times, columnist Martin Wolf says the closure of the shipping channel is “not just about oil” but about “gas, fertilisers and petrochemicals”. He says: “If the strait is not reopened soon, the world risks both economic and political disruption. Only one major power, Russia, will be unambiguously better off.”

UK energy minister Michael Shanks told a select committee yesterday that — “despite some scaremongering stories” published over the past two weeks – the UK has “very strong energy supplies from a diverse range of sources”, reports the Press Association. However, he added that there was “no question that the situation in the Middle East and the uncertainty that that brings does have an impact on price”, the newswire notes. In a frontpage story, the Daily Mirror says the war could add “£1,300 a year” to household bills, noting: “Now energy suppliers are warning gas and electricity could surge by £250 a year on the back of a spike in wholesale costs.” The Daily Telegraph says consultants at LCP Delta have predicted that UK electricity prices will rise 40% this year and 18% next. It adds the impact on bills will be “softened” by the UK’s electricity interconnector links to Norway and France. It notes that Norway relies mainly on hydroelectricity and France’s power is largely nuclear generated – “meaning both are less exposed to spikes in gas”. 

Meanwhile, the hard-right, populist Reform UK has promised to scrap VAT and green levies on household energy bills if elected, arguing this would save the average family £200 a year, reports BBC News. This includes a levy known as “carbon price support”, as well as the “renewables obligation levy” – which will be abandoned entirely, the outlet says. At a rally in London, Nigel Farage reportedly said that the “net-zero agenda” has “only led to skyrocketing energy bills for working people”. To promote its announcement, it launched a prize draw promising to pay the energy bills of the winner and their entire street, the article says. The Guardian reports that the competition – which requires entrants to disclose their name, email and telephone number on an online form – could breach data protection law. The Independent says that digital rights campaigners have urged the UK investigation watchdog to look into the competition. The Daily Mail also covers Reform’s energy pledges, while both the Times and Daily Telegraph carry political sketches about the stunt.

Elsewhere, Sky News covers calls from AA president Edmund King for the UK government to delay plans to end a temporary 5p cut in fuel duty this autumn. The Daily Express covers figures from the Taxpayers’ Alliance, which says house­holds could pay almost £40,000 in fuel duty over an entire life­time – up from £36,300 – if the fuel duty “hike” goes ahead.

MORE ON UK

• The UK government is expected to publish its long-awaited “green homes plan” next week, with ministers set to mandate low-carbon heating for all new-builds and solar panels on the vast majority, reports Politico.
• For the first time, government ministers will “set out how much land is needed to meet the UK’s net-zero target through growing forests and restoring peatland…and through energy generation from solar and windfarms”, reports the Guardian.
• Francesco Mazzagatti – “an energy trader who has become a key figure in the North Sea industry” – is facing a worldwide asset freeze over allegations he siphoned off funds from former business partners in Iran, according to Bloomberg.
• The Times looks at why the UK pays more for power than “any other developed nation”.
• The Daily Mail has been forced to correct its electric car price claims after misleading readers, following a complaint made by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit to press regulator IPSO, reports the Byline Times.
• Octopus Energy data shows a “surge of solar installation inquiries” from UK households since the start of the Iran conflict, according to BusinessGreen.

During the first two months of the year, China’s production of wind turbines and lithium batteries for energy storage rose 28.7% and 84% year-on-year, respectively, reports energy news outlet International Energy Net, citing data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Financial news outlet Caixin reports that the US has “abandoned plans to impose anti-dumping or countervailing duties” on imports of Chinese graphite anode material, a “key” battery component. Meanwhile, Reuters publishes an article by journalist You Xiaoying, saying that Chinese manufacturers have already moved into “mass production” of sodium batteries for both transport and large-scale energy storage as they look to “find alternatives” to lithium.

MORE ON CHINA

• NEA says China’s electricity consumption rose 6.1% in January and February, reports BJX News.
• Reuters reports that Chinese state oil majors have resumed seeking Russian crude cargoes after a “four-month hiatus”.
• Lianhe Zaobao reports that China will continue issuing green sovereign bonds this year to attract international capital for low-carbon development.
• A Global Times editorial argues that western outlets have “undergone a noticeable shift in their narrative about China’s green development”.
• Science and Technology Daily says extreme weather is climate change’s “new normal”, citing China’s national Climate Centre.
• Economic Daily says that China’s solar industry should shift from “scale first” to “quality first”.

Indian state-run oil companies’ sales of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell 17% in the first half of March,​​ “as supplies to commercial customers decelerated sharply amid the widespread logistical bottlenecks” brought on by the war, the Economic Times reports. Manufacturing companies reliant on LPG in their production processes are turning to “alternative fuels”, including diesel and oxy-acetylene, but warn that there is “visibility for commercial supplies for only two days”, per another Economic Times story. A Carbon Copy story investigating the “rippling” impacts of shortages on India’s kitchens, industries and supply chains says that “[i]n many ways, this is Covid redux”, warning that large parts of India’s economy are “about to see either an energy shortage or a raw material shortage”. The decision to “stop supplying gas” took “commercial establishments by surprise, because, over the past 10 years, the Indian government has been evangelising [gas] as an affordable and plentiful fuel”, it writes. The story adds that as some “fall back on older forms of energy”, the “larger costs will be ecological”, concluding: “Such are the costs of not decarbonising sooner.”

MORE ON INDIA

• India’s renewable energy ministry wants clean energy firms to use “only locally made solar ​ingots and wafers from June 2028” to “curb ​Chinese imports”, Reuters reports.
• Over 35GW of renewable capacity could face “grid curtailment” as “transmission expansion struggles to keep pace with rapid solar and wind additions”, the Financial Express writes.
• A Hindu comment co-authored by India’s former water secretary argues that the Belém indicators on adaptation “are not a bureaucratic checklist; they are a dashboard for survival”. 

In the Daily Telegraph, international business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard writes that “electrotech will win the global energy contest” and “destroy the legacy system of fossil fuel in the end”. As such, he argues it would be “fatal” for the UK to “bow to those who want to keep things just as they are”. He says that exploiting “everything we can” from the North Sea is a “sane economic choice” and will allow the UK to displace LNG from the US, which he says has a “horrendous CO2 and methane footprint”. However, Pritchard adds that reopening the North Sea would “not make any difference” to the current crisis or to gas and petrol prices. He continues that Britain’s transition to renewables is a “success story”, with the UK now less vulnerable than it was four years ago when Russia attacked Ukraine. He adds: “Britain is better shielded against the full shock of the Iran war than most of Asia and parts of Europe, though you would hardly know this from the catastrophist hollering in British politics”. 

In editorials, the Daily Telegraph argues that chancellor Rachel Reeves does not have a “plan for growth”, adding: “While Ms Reeves recognised that firms are facing crushing energy prices, there was no sign that the government intends to change course on the net-zero policies undermining our competitiveness.” The Daily Mirror says British families facing energy and fuel bill hikes should “not be forced to bankroll the economic consequences of one man’s [Trump] dangerous brinkmanship”. And the Daily Express calls on the government to extend the temporary 5p fuel duty cut “to avoid fresh financial pain for many”.

MORE UK COMMENT

• Jeremy Warner, assistant editor of the Daily Telegraph, says bond markets “will not tolerate” a repeat of Britain’s “blank cheque approach” to the last energy crisis, when it says “nearly £50bn was squandered” protecting households and businesses.
• James Kirkup of Acapella Partners writes in the Daily Telegraph that data centres are a “new flashpoint” for Labour’s “growth wars” where pro-investment ministers are pitted against “what they see as the ‘blob’ campaigners and activists”.

An editorial in the Washington Post warns that Trump’s “losing” legal battles against onshore windfarms have “succeeded in generating uncertainty about wind energy”. This is cause for alarm – “even for those sceptical of renewable projects” – given that demand for more power has never been greater”, it says. It also notes the president’s anti-wind crusade creates a precedent for future Democratic presidents to block oil and gas projects. As such, the newspaper continues: “The sooner the administration gives up on this losing battle, the better”. It concludes: “No president should have the unilateral power to gum up a state’s infrastructure plans simply because of ideological hang-ups.”

MORE GLOBAL COMMENT

• For Salon, national affairs editor Troy Farah explains the links between fossil fuels, conflict and climate change. 
• For the Wall Street Journal, climate-sceptic commentator Bjorn Lomborg argues that California governor Gavin Newsom is getting “basic facts wrong” on climate change and California wildfires.
• For her Heated newsletter, Emily Atkin says fossil-fuel companies are “no longer trying to convince us they are good-faith partners in the fight to preserve a safe and stable climate”.
• For Reuters, columnist Gavin Maguire looks at how energy security in Europe, US and China is faring as the Iran war continues.
• Writing for Climate Home News, the Union of Concerned Scientists’ Carly Phillips discusses how climate science is on trial in the US.
• Craig McLean, former assistant administrator of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) research unit, writes for USA Today that the US should be “doubling down” on investment in NOAA.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Cecilia Keating, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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