The election of Donald Trump would derail the landmark agreement on climate change reached in Paris last December, the architect of the accord has warned. Trump is now virtually certain to be the Republican candidate for president and has said “I am not a great believer in manmade climate change”, leading to fears he would attempt to unpick the historic agreement if he became president. Without naming Trump, the former French foreign minister Laurent Fabius told an audience in London: “Think about the impact of the coming US presidential elections. If a climate change denier was to be elected, it would threaten dramatically global action against climate disruption.” He said: “We must not think that everything is settled.” Climate Home also carries the story.

The wildfire that continues to rage throughout the Fort McMurray, Alberta area, prompting at least 80,000 people to flee the flames in the largest fire-related evacuation in Alberta’s history, is no fluke in this era of megafires across the American West and the mighty Boreal forests of Canada, Alaska and Russia, reports Mashable. It is yet another warning sign of a climate system run amok, due to a combination of human-caused global warming and natural climate variability, according to climate studies and experts. “Such temperatures are virtually unheard of at this time of year, since snow cover typically prevents such mild temperatures from occurring until June at the earliest in the far northern latitudes. However, due in part to an El Niño event in the tropical Pacific Ocean, the winter season was milder and drier than average, which has led to an anaemic snow cover throughout northwest Canada. This has allowed the soil and vegetation to dry out, making it more susceptible to wildfires. In addition, long-term trends associated with human-caused global warming include earlier spring snow melt and later starts to the winter season, which is lengthening wildfire seasons from Alaska to Alberta, and south to New Mexico.” Meanwhile, Reuters reports that the fire is set to “become the costliest ever Canadian natural disaster for insurers”. Some commentators in the Canadian media – for example, John Geddes in Maclean’s magazine – have questioned why Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, has been reluctant to link the fire to climate change. CBC News reports Elizabeth May, the leader of Canada’s Green Party, as saying “of course” there’s a link.

A group of 20 Conservative MPs have today written to Prime Minister David Cameron, urging him to secure “early and full agreement” across government in support of the adoption of the Fifth Carbon Budget in line with the Committee on Climate Change’s (CCC) recommendations. The letter, which was convened by Graham Stuart MP, boasts support from a number of high profile backbenchers, including former environment minister Richard Benyon, chair of the health committee Sarah Wollaston, Environmental Audit Committee member Peter Aldous, and former health minister Daniel Poulter. It argues adopting the Fifth Carbon Budget and accepting the CCC’s recommendations for a 57 per cent cut in carbon emissions against 1990 levels by 2032 would reduce the costs of decarbonisation and help mobilise investment in low carbon infrastructure. Energy Live News and the Guardian also carry the story.

Parts of the Sizewell B nuclear power station in Suffolk were made at a French plant being investigated over possible fake manufacturing records, EDF Energy has confirmed. EDF said components destined for the proposed Hinkley Point C plant were also made at the Areva-owned Le Creusot plant, where anomalies in documents related to 400 nuclear components have so far been identified. Meanwhile, Reuters reports that EDF’s former chief financial officer had urged the utility to delay a final investment decision on building Britain’s Hinkley Point nuclear plant by at least three years. Thomas Piquemal’s shock resignation in March raised doubts about EDF’s ability to finance the 18 billion pound ($26 billion) project in western England but Piquemal had not previously spoken publicly about his reasons for leaving. The Times also carries the story.

The largest political group in the European Parliament said on Wednesday it wants a greater proportion of EU carbon permits to be handed out free to industry from 2020. Under the current ETS trading phase, which runs from 2013 to 2020, the majority of allowances are sold via government auctions, with most of the remainder given free to industry. The European Commission’s reform for post-2020 proposes fixing the auction share at 57 percent of the total allowances, meaning a maximum of 43 percent would go free to industry. Lawmakers from the European People’s Party (EPP) are calling for the share of free allocations to be higher than the 43 percent proposed by the EU executive. The overall cap on permits would not change, however, limiting the impact on trading. The hand outs are a concession worth billions of euros designed to help shelter factories and plants from added energy costs that they say could drive them out of Europe. The lawmakers say the change is to help avoid a trigger mechanism known as the correction factor that cuts free permits to industry across the board to ensure the total meted out by member states does not exceed that allowed under EU law. Carbon Pulse also carries the story.

Germany is considering supporting a minimum EU ETS price, according to a draft environment ministry document seen by Bloomberg, in what could be an easing of the country’s reluctance towards price controls in the bloc-wide emissions market. The German government favours an emissions market that may “include the adoption of a Europe-wide minimum price to set a sufficiently strong price signal,” according to the draft document. It still needs to be approved by Environment Minister Barbara Hendricks as part of a 2050 climate plan Germany is crafting with the aim of getting full government sign-off this summer. Reuters also carries the story.

Shell, BP and five other top oil companies could raise their collective stock market value by up to $140bn (£97bn) if they set new strategies based on ensuring global warming is held to a 2C rise above pre-industrial levels, a new report claims. These leading energy companies including Exxon Mobil should ditch high-cost projects in deep water and Canadian tar sands to concentrate on cheaper schemes that make money at low crude prices, says the report, Sense and Sensitivity, by the Carbon Tracker Initiative. “A simple carbon sensitivity analysis shows that oil majors pursuing volume at all costs can deliver lower shareholder value than a more disciplined approach. That is why financial regulators need to make 2C stress tests standard practice for the energy sector to help avoid companies wasting capital,” said James Leaton, research director at Carbon Tracker, a non-profit financial thinktank. Climate Home also carries the story.

Growth of greenhouse gas emissions will slow “substantially” by 2030 as a result of a range of new policies, laws and promises by governments, says a new UN report. The “aggregate” study picks through climate plans – the NDCs – submitted by 189 countries before and after the 2015 Paris Agreement, and determines there is a global will to tackle climate change. Climate Home says: “What’s new about this report is that those 189 plans cover nearly 100% of global emissions linked to countries, offering a clearer picture of the challenge ahead. Emissions from the burning of oil, gas and coal together with changes in land use are expected to grow 16% from 2010-2030, compared with 24% from 1990-2010.”

The long-suffering Florida coral reef tract — the largest reef in the continental U.S. and third-largest barrier reef ecosystem in the world — may have bigger problems than anyone thought, according to new research from the University of Miami and Florida International University. Scientists have discovered that part of the reef is actually dissolving into the water, likely thanks to the effects of human-induced ocean acidification. The research, published earlier this week in the journal Global Biogeochemical Cycles, took surveys of coral throughout the Florida Keys from 2009 to 2010. Harvey says: “Worryingly, the researchers found that the part of the reef in the northern Keys, closer to Miami, was already eroding more quickly than the corals were able to rebuild themselves.” The Guardian also carries the story. Separately, Climate Central reports on research published in the journal PLOS One, which “illuminates a hidden cost of the ongoing losses of reefs that shelter shorelines throughout balmy coastal regions”.

The supermarket Sainsbury’s has cast doubt on the UK’s ability to keep the lights on, reports the Telegraph, revealing it has built a string of new power plants for its supermarkets in part due to fears of a looming energy crunch. The paper reports: “Paul Crewe, a senior executive at the supermarket giant, said he had sleepless nights over energy security and feared UK electricity demand could soon outstrip supply. The new gas-fired power generators – already supplying electricity for 10 supermarkets, and due to be built at a further six this year – would enable the stores to keep trading even in the event of a blackout, he said.” Mr Crewe said: “It gives us energy security. Energy security is extremely important, it keeps me awake at night if I’m honest thinking about it – especially as we use just under one per cent of power in the UK. We know UK grid infrastructure is at an extremely stretching period of time.”

Nuccitelli looks at a new study which surveyed a total of 2,495 people in Canada, China, Germany, Switzerland, the UK, and the US. They asked questions to evaluate the participants’ specific knowledge about the physical characteristics of climate change and understanding of its causes and consequences. “Critically, they found that knowledge about the causes of climate change was correlated with higher concern about climate change in all countries, and knowledge about the consequences was linked to higher concern in most countries.” He adds: “While there’s certainly a group who are unreachable due to ideologically-based science denial, they are a relatively small and dwindling segment of the population. For the vast majority of people who underestimate the expert consensus and don’t understand the mechanics of the greenhouse effect, this knowledge can make a difference.” Meanwhile, ClimateProgress looks at some other research into how best to frame climate change “to inspire people not just to act, but also to give”.

A new study examines the carbon flux from soil that results from turning arable and pasture land into bioenergy crops. Soil carbon in a short-rotation coppice site with poplar and willow increased after four years, from 10.9 to 13.9 kg of carbon per square metre. Coarse roots represented the second biggest carbon pool, followed by fine roots. Uncertainty in soil fluxes resulting from different land use transitions needs further investigation before widespread deployment of bioenergy crops, say the authors.