A UN report has warned that global temperatures are moving towards a 2.8C rise this century based on existing government policies, the Financial Times says. The newspaper notes: “UN secretary-general António Guterres once again warned about the prospects of global warming exceeding 1.5C since the start of the industrial era, saying it was now ‘inevitable’ and ‘the path to a liveable future gets steeper every day’.” Coverage in Climate Home News says that Guterres’ comments mark the “first time the UN has formally accepted that the 1.5C limit will definitely be breached”. 

Reuters adds that the warming trajectory is “0.3C lower than it was a year ago before COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan – meaning new plans announced this year have done little to move the needle”. The New York Times says that the report notes that some progress “could end up being cancelled in the years ahead as the United States dismantles its pollution controls and other climate policies under President Trump”. Read Carbon Brief’s detailed breakdown of the key findings. The report is covered by a number of other outlets including Euronews, Politico, BusinessGreen, Economist, the Associated Press, Inside Climate News, Bloomberg and the Press Association.

Countries in the EU have “clinched a preliminary deal” to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 90% below 1990 levels by 2040, Bloomberg reports. The outlet says the agreement came after “more than 15 hours of negotiations between environment ministers” in Brussels yesterday. It quotes a spokesperson for Denmark, which holds the rotating EU presidency, as saying “we believe we have the basis for a political deal”, which is due to be formalised this morning. Reuters reports that the goal has been “water[ed] down”, with a draft copy of the deal allowing countries to “buy foreign carbon credits to cover up to 5% of the 90% emissions-cutting goal”. The newswire says: “That would effectively weaken to 85% the emissions cuts required from European industries, and pay foreign countries to cut emissions on Europe’s behalf to make up the rest.” Politico and Euractiv also cover the story.

MORE ON CLIMATE POLICY

• Bloomberg covers a new report from Bloomberg Economics researchers which finds that “if the world collectively retreated from green policies, the global economy would shrink”. 
• Carbon unit prices in New Zealand dropped after the government announced climate law changes, Bloomberg reports. 
• Reuters reports that Canada could remove a cap on oil and gas emissions and bolster measures such as “strengthened industrial carbon pricing and the deployment of carbon capture and storage technology”.
• Researchers in Australia say their net-zero modelling has been “misrepresented” by opposition politicians, the Guardian reports.

The Associated Press reports that Brazil’s president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has outlined some of his “vision” for protecting the Amazon rainforest with initiatives such as the Tropical Forest Forever Facility, a major forest fund due to be announced at the COP30 climate summit in Belém. Bloomberg says that Brazil is “lowering expectations” for the level of initial investment into the fund. Brazil’s finance minister tells the outlet that he believes it could raise $10bn by next year, which Bloomberg notes is “less than half of the original target of $25bn”. Another Bloomberg article reports that the UK will not invest in the fund which will make it “increasingly difficult” to reach this $10bn goal. The outlet notes that UK prime minister Keir Starmer was previously “considering investing at least $1bn” in the fund. 

MORE ON COP30 

• The Financial Times reports on fears over Trump’s “retributive diplomacy” at COP30, while CNN explores how the US could influence the talks “without even being there”. 
• Argentina has not yet registered to attend COP30, Bloomberg reports. 
• The Associated Press reports on calls for COP30 to have “less talking and more doing”, New Scientist asks if it “get climate negotiations back on track” and Sky News asks: “Why is COP30 so controversial?”.
• Bloomberg reports that the finance industry ahead of COP30 is “laser focused on meeting demand for energy supply and energy security”, rather than “fretting over 1.5C”.  
• A group of 300 mayors from around the world have pledged coordinated action on climate at a meeting in Rio de Janeiro, according to the Los Angeles Times.
• Brazilian president Lula says he will call Trump again if talks between the US and Brazil do not progress by the end of COP30, according to Reuters.

India’s environment and climate ministry says that the “rationalisation of adaptation indicators [for the ‘global goal on adaptation’] will be a major issue” at COP30, while “stressing that these indicators must not disadvantage developing countries”, the Press Trust of India reports. It says that “global progress on adaptation has been slow, limited and fragmented”, with the ministry calling for “transparent tracking of finance, technology transfer and capacity-building support from developed nations”. The Hindustan Times quotes India’s climate minister Bhupender Yadav as saying that “[r]eporting under the [adaptation] indicator framework should not become an additional administrative burden for developing countries, nor should it reduce adaptation into a reporting exercise”. The newspaper adds that Yadav “did not say when” India will publish its climate pledge for the 2035 period, telling reporters that “[w]e will announce [the updated pledge] as soon as we conclude the required consultations”. The Print reports that prime minister Narendra Modi is likely to miss COP30, with Yadav leading India’s delegation and Indian ambassador to Brazil, Dinesh Bhatia, likely to represent the country at the high-profile leaders summit. 

MORE ON INDIA

• Down to Earth writes that India’s negotiators are “entering COP30 with a clear focus” on adaptation, technology and finance delivery, “rather than new emission-cutting obligations”.
• India recorded the “highest absolute increase in emissions” in 2024 compared to the previous year, but its per capita emissions “remain significantly below” the global average, according to the UN’s emissions gap report, as covered by the Times of India.
• A Carbon Copy comment looks at how COP30 can be a “pivotal moment” for India to “actively shap[e] the global climate-trade agenda”.  
• Reuters reports that India’s power ministry has directed the country’s renewable energy implementation agencies to “sign agreements directly” with clean-energy developers, bypassing buyers such as state utilities. 

Most major automakers in China, including many “new energy vehicle (NEV)” companies, have recorded higher sales in October as domestic competition intensifies and overseas expansion accelerates, business news outlet Yicai reports. However, industry insiders say that with the “gradual phase-out” of subsidies, Chinese NEV brands that fail to “achieve scale advantages” will face an “even tougher elimination race next year”, the outlet adds. According to data released by China’s Passenger Car Association (CPCA) on Tuesday, total NEV sales in China increased by 16% to 1.6m in October, Bloomberg reports. Data from the CPCA also shows that in the first 10 months of the year, cumulative sales of NEVs in China have reached 12.1m, a year-on-year increase of 30%, Chinese news outlet IT Home reports.

MORE ON CHINA

• Chinese president Xi Jinping says that China is willing to advance cooperation with Russia in industries including energy and “green development”, Reuters reports, citing state broadcaster CCTV. 
• In a comment bylined Global Times, the newspaper says the “US’ indifferent inaction and self-serving obstruction” is “dragging down [the] global process” in climate action.
• SCMP: “China reaches energy independence milestone by ‘breeding’ uranium from thorium.” Yicai also covers the story.
• Another Yicai report says that Chinese researchers have discovered a way to “greatly cut carbon emissions during the production of liquid fuel hydrocarbons”.
• China Daily carries a comment by Mohan Munasinghe, former vice-chair of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who says that China’s “15th five-year plan” will “set the stage” for addressing the climate impact on urban areas by accelerating “smart sustainable low-carbon development” through “digital technology and green infrastructure”.

The Guardian covers the findings of a new report which says that solar geoengineering could “increase the ferocity of North Atlantic hurricanes, cause the Amazon rainforest to die back and cause drought in parts of Africa if deployed above only some parts of the planet by rogue actors”. According to the newspaper, the report from the UK’s Royal Society says that if sun-blocking technology was used effectively all around the world over decades or centuries, there is “strong evidence that it would lower the global temperature”. But it adds that the researchers “emphasised that geoengineering only masked the symptoms of the climate crisis, and did not tackle the root cause – the burning of fossil fuels”. The Times notes that this is “one of the most detailed assessments yet of solar radiation modification”. The Press Association also covers the report. 

MORE ON UK 

• Chancellor Rachel Reeves is “considering slashing funding for more energy efficient homes to pay for a reduction in energy bills” in the upcoming budget, as well as potentially making changes to the renewables obligation, the Guardian reports on its frontpage. 
• The Press Association says that trade bodies for offshore energy and renewables have called on Reeves and energy secretary Ed Miliband to “replace the oil and gas windfall tax”.
• The Times reports that one-quarter of the UK’s native plants are at risk of extinction. 
• Glasgow will trial a free public transport scheme aimed to “ease congestion and cut fossil-fuel emissions”, the Independent reports.
• The Daily Telegraph reports on its frontpage that children will receive lessons on climate change under the government’s “shake-up” of school curriculums. The Daily Mail also carries the story on its frontpage, as does the Guardian.

At least 66 people have been killed and 26 others are missing in the Philippines after Typhoon Kalmaegi, the Guardian reports. In continued coverage of the typhoon, the newspaper says that most deaths occurred in the central province of Cebu, which was “pummelled by Kalmaegi on Tuesday, setting off flash floods and causing a river and other waterways to swell”. BBC News says that this was one of the strongest typhoons this year in the Philippines. 

MORE ON EXTREME WEATHER 

• Jamaica’s prime minister says Hurricane Melissa last week caused damage equivalent to around one-third of the country’s gross domestic product last year, the Guardian reports. 
• The death toll from Hurricane Melissa in Haiti has risen to at least 43, with 13 others missing, the Associated Press reports.
• The Independent reports on how Vietnam is adapting to climate extremes.

An editorial in the Sydney Morning Herald focuses on the recent decision from the opposition National Party to “ditch net-zero”. The editorial says: “Now the diminished cohort of Liberals who support net-zero by 2050 – many of whom also supported [Liberal Party leader Sussan] Ley’s narrow leadership victory – are the ones threatening dire consequences.” The newspaper asks: “If…the Liberals are unanimous that ‘climate change is real’ and the party’s policy must reduce emissions, what are voters to make of the proposed abandonment of a timetable and a target, of even the vocabulary of net-zero?” A Sydney Morning Herald opinion piece from author and columnist Jacqueline Maley asks “what is left” if net-zero commitments are “abandoned”. 

MORE COMMENT 

• Mauricio Vazquez from thinktank ODI and Habib Mayar from the G7+ secretariat write in Foreign Policy that “Brazil’s people-centered climate vision risks abandoning the most vulnerable”. 
• COP30 “presents a rare opportunity for world leaders to see in person the true value of such forests”, writes Jack Hurd, the head of the World Economic Forum’s Earth System Agenda and the executive director of the Tropical Forest Alliance, in the Economist. 
• Climate-sceptic columnist Ross Clark writes in the Sun that UK prime minister Keir Starmer’s “obsession” with net-zero is an “example of how to ruin an economy and impoverish people”. 

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Orla Dwyer, with contributions from Aruna Chandrasekhar, Henry Zhang and Wanyuan Song. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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