Eurosceptic parties like the UK Independence Party have made gains across Europe, election results show, winning the largest share in the UK, France and several other member states.

These parties are generally opposed to environmental rules and regulations, preferring a focus on jobs, growth and immigration.

So it’s no surprise to see speculation that this will damage the EU’s climate agenda. More unexpected is the idea that the rise of the eurosceptics will be good for climate policy. We take a look at the main arguments.

Balance of power

Analysts Thomson Reuters Point Carbon said climate and energy policy would be “significantly influenced” by the shift in the balance of power, and they don’t mean in a good way.

In a press release Marcus Ferdinand, head of EU carbon analysis for the firm said:

“With the increased share of eurosceptic Parliamentarians, the majority in favour of tighter energy and climate policy – as well as a more ambitious EU emissions trading scheme – is likely to become more unstable.”

The EU’s carbon markets could become more unstable too, its analysts argued, if votes in the European Parliament’s key environment committee become less predictable and more frequently subject to challenge. But markets have not been affected so far, according to trade journal Utility Week.

ENDS Europe reports that centre-right, eurosceptic and conservative MEPs are likely to gain enough seats to be able to block or weaken environmental legislation passing through the 71-member environment committee, if they so choose.

Griffin’s wings clipped

The committee previously hosted one UKIP MEP, and the British National Party’s Nick Griffin who lost his seat at the election. The new make-up of seats on the committee has not yet been finalised, however, and it will not start working on carbon market reform until the autumn.

Bloomberg reports that far-right and far-left MEPs are unlikely to try to secure seats on the committee, according to public affairs adviser Laurent Donceel. He argues that a more significant impact will be the loss of experienced MEPs and an influx of new MEPs with little knowledge of key climate policies.

For instance Liberal Democrat MEP Chris Davies was responsible for the development of the EU directive on carbon capture and storage. He lost his seat as Nick Clegg’s party faced EU oblivion, losing all but one of its European Parliament representatives.

Reuters reports that climate policy remains an EU priority for German chancellor Angela Merkel. But her opinion does not necessarily reflect that of the European Parliament.

So how exactly could the election results boost ambitious climate policy? The argument goes that centre-left parties typically vote for stronger climate action. These parties have gained votes in the elections, while the centre-right parties have lost ground.

Although the centre-right remains the largest grouping, this shift hands a stronger balance of power to the likes of the Greens and liberals, according to energy investor Assaad Razzouk. He adds that eurosceptic MEPs have a poor attendance record, meaning their votes are counted less often. This is certainly true for some prominent UKIP MEPs.

Presidential prerogative

One final point to bear in mind is that the European Parliament has gained a power of veto over the next president of the European Commission, the EU’s policy-making arm. It can put forward candidates and must vote to approve the final choice.

The two leading candidates are the centre-right’s preferred choice Jean-Claude Juncker and the centre-left’s Martin Schulz. Both have supported strong climate legislation and both have made budgetary control the centrepiece of their campaigns.

So while parliament’s choice of candidate may not directly affect climate policy the rise of its eurosceptic minority might constrain the new president’s ability to act and change the emphasis given to fiscal responsibility versus emissions controls.