The world is “almost certain” to experience a record-breaking hot year by 2030 due to climate change, reports the Guardian, citing a new report produced by the UN World Meteorological Organization and UK Met Office. The newspaper continues: “[The report] predicts an 86% chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest ever recorded. There is a 75% chance that the average temperature for the five-year period from 2026 to 2030 will be more than 1.5C above the pre-industrial average.” In its coverage of the report, Reuters notes that “temporarily crossing the 1.5C threshold does not mean ​the Paris Agreement has failed, as it refers to a long-term average over 20 years rather than a single year’s exceedance”. The Associated Press and Agence France-Presse also cover the report. 

MORE ON EXTREME HEAT

• Reuters covers comments from Vietnam’s industry minister, who warned that the heatwave gripping the country “has already placed immense pressure on the national power grid”, adding that the problem could get worse when El Niño hits.

Simon Stiell, the executive secretary of UN Climate Change, has called the intense heatwave sweeping across parts of western Europe a “‘brutal’ reminder of the cost of global warming”, reports Politico. According to the outlet, Stiell said: “The main culprit is the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas, and destroying forests…This climate-driven heatwave is double-jeopardy, at a time when the latest war in the Middle East is showing the soaring costs of depending on fossil-fuel imports.” The Guardian also quotes Stiell saying that “the science is clear that human-induced climate change is making these heatwaves more frequent and extreme”. EuroNews reports that London is facing temperatures exceeding 16C above average, while Paris is 14C above average, Berlin 11C, Lisbon 10C and Madrid 10C. Euractiv explains why Europe is the world’s fastest-warming continent.

BBC News reports that “patients at Jersey Hospital have been reassured that emergency, urgent and maternity care can continue as normal despite the record-breaking heat causing mechanical failures with air conditioning”. The Independent and BBC News report that Tuesday saw a surge in 999 calls. The Guardian says that at least nine people have died in “water-related incidents” in the past few days and says safety experts are warning of the dangers of outdoor swimming. Bloomberg reports on a surge in sales of fans and “other cooling products”. The Daily Telegraph adds that “Britain’s roads started melting and rail commuters were left stranded for hours”. The Guardian says: “In 2024, summer heat in the EU claimed roughly three times more lives than car crashes, 16 times more than murderers, and more than 10,000 times more than terrorists.” The Times reports on worries that Scotland is moving towards a “European-style wildfire season”, as a “very high” risk alert was issued for parts of the country.

Le Monde reports that as a result of the heat, France is also experiencing “an unusually early nationwide spike in ozone pollution”. Separately, Le Monde outlines how the heatwave in France is affecting plants and wildlife. The Guardian speaks to “tourists and locals” across five European capitals about their experience of the heat and “their worries about what the climate emergency might mean for the future”. Bloomberg reports that “the heat dome has blocked clouds and fueled booming solar generation”, but adds that “by clearing clouds and calming the atmosphere, the heat dome has had the opposite effect on wind speeds”. Reuters reports that “German day-ahead power prices jumped 29% on Wednesday as a heatwave across ​much of Europe raised cooling needs, while lower ‌wind generation meant that more expensive electricity production sources, such as gas and coal-fired power plants, would be needed to cover ​demand”. 

MORE ON EUROPE

• Reuters says that “an EU plan to gradually reduce the number of free CO2 permits given ‌to industries has hit resistance from six governments that have demanded looser rules to help firms cope with the energy price impact of the Iran war”.
• BBC News says: “Canada has announced a landmark energy agreement with Germany that will see the first-ever long-term shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG) from Canada to Europe in the coming years.”
• Bloomberg: “Europe car sales rise for third straight month on EV demand.”
• Reuters says: “Europe’s benchmark natural gas contract fell ​around 5% on Thursday ‌afternoon after Iran said a draft US peace ​deal would lead to ​the reopening of shipping ⁠via the strait of ​Hormuz.”
• Bloomberg says: “Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni got told by the International Monetary Fund that her government’s energy aid should target poorer families rather than apply to everyone.”
• Reuters says: “Russia said on Wednesday it had warned Armenia it would suspend or terminate the supply ‌of cheap oil, gas and rough diamonds if Yerevan pressed ahead with its bid to join the European Union.”

Global investments in oil projects will fall below $500bn in 2026, Bloomberg says, according to the latest International Energy Agency’s annual World Energy Investment report. The outlet continues: “Overall energy investments are expected to rise slightly to $3.4tn in 2026, and are mostly going to power grids, storage, low-emissions fuels, nuclear, renewables and electrification. Key fuel importers are now looking for energy resources at home, mainly renewables, nuclear and coal.” Reuters says that according to the report, spending on gas will hit a ten-year high in 2026. It adds that in the wake of the Iran war “companies are accelerating ⁠investment in other geographies and boosting spending on renewables, LNG ​and coal to shore up supply security”. The Telegraph India adds that “India’s energy investment has grown at an average annual rate of 11% over the past five years, supported by rapid expansion in renewable energy and transmission infrastructure to meet rising electricity demand and clean energy targets”. 

MORE ON OIL AND GAS

• Reuters says: “Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Thursday after Iran’s ​Revolutionary Guards said they targeted a US airbase in response ‌to a US attack near Bandar Abbas airport.”
• Bloomberg reports that “commercial shipping through the strait of Hormuz dwindled to only a few mostly Iran-linked vessels”. Reuters says two oil tankers and one for gas exited the strait earlier this week, bound for India and China. 
• Bloomberg reports that “falling water levels on one of Europe’s most important rivers are restricting the amount of oil barges can carry”. 
• Bloomberg says: “Germany’s gas grid operators are calling for sweeping changes to the way storage refills are encouraged, warning that stubbornly low inventory levels are heightening the risk of supply shortages ahead of winter.”
• The New York Times reports that BP’s ousted chair, Albert Manifold, has “vowed to challenge the accusations surrounding his dismissal, adding more uncertainty to a company that has been rocked by executive turmoil in the past few years”. 

China stockpiled more than a 30-day supply of coal to “feed power plants ahead of an anticipated summer heatwave and an electricity shortage induced by the El Niño climate effect”, reports Nikkei Asia. China Southern Power Grid, responsible for the operations of five provinces in South China, reported a record high power load on Monday evening, nearly one month earlier than the peaks in previous years, reports the Shanghai-based news outlet the Paper. The outlet says power load rose 0.7% from the previous record, reaching 259 gigawatts (GW), according to the company. It quotes Li Zhiyong, a manager at the company’s dispatch centre, saying that “unusually early high temperatures” in southern China this year pushed electricity demand to record levels earlier than the typical peak season in June and July. The company said that on Tuesday, power load in its operating regions increased again by 9GW, hitting a new high for the second time this year, according to Chinese news outlet IT Home.

MORE ON CHINA

• The NEA has designated the first batch of high-value “AI+” energy scenarios, covering renewables, reports International Energy Net. People’s Daily reports that total electricity consumption by computing centres in China reached 170 terawatt hours in 2025, accounting for 1.6% of total consumption.
• China calls for developing carbon footprints and carbon accounting standards for EVs, batteries and EV manufacturers, reports BJX News. 
• Citing analysis for Carbon Brief, Reuters says that “retrospective changes to methodology or inconsistent accounting” could “erode” China’s climate commitments. A state-supporting Global Times editorial criticises the analysis. 
• Gao Fei, president of the China Foreign Affairs University, writes in People’s Daily that China and the US share a “common interest” in addressing climate change.
• China Daily carries an interview in which experts call for the establishment of “a fairer and more transparent global carbon pricing system”.
• Bloomberg reports that “Chinese imports of crude oil are set to drop to levels not seen since the pandemic”.

There is ongoing media coverage of the essay that former Labour prime minister Tony Blair published on his thinktank’s website yesterday, criticising the current Labour government. BusinessGreen reports that Blair called for the UK to “remove parts of the net-zero agenda which prioritise clean energy over cheaper energy” and to “use what is left of our North Sea oil and gas resources”. The outlet says that Blair subsequently told Times Radio that he proposes ditching the UK’s net-zero goals altogether, saying: “It’s not that I’m against renewable energy, clean energy and it’s not that I’m a climate denier – it’s coming to terms with this reality.” However, the outlet adds that “Blair’s comments drew immediate criticism from climate experts, the green business community and a number of Labour figures, all of whom questioned the wisdom as well as the timing of the former PM’s latest intervention”.

The Daily Telegraph covers the story under the headline “Blair mocks Miliband over net-zero”, while the Scotsman says: “Blair tells Labour to drain every drop of oil from North Sea and axe net-zero targets.” The Daily Express says on its frontpage: “Ed Miliband’s net-zero policies branded ‘fantasy’ by Tony Blair in blistering attack.” The Daily Mail also reports Blair’s comments on Times Radio describing Miliband’s approach as “quixotic fantasy”. The Times reports on its frontpage that “Keir Starmer is under mounting pressure from his cabinet to rethink Labour’s net-zero agenda”​, adding that “ministers are increasingly questioning the central argument behind Labour’s opposition to new North Sea drilling”.

MORE ON UK

• There is ongoing media coverage of news that the energy price cap is rising by 13% from July, due to the impact of the Iran war on gas prices, in the Guardian, BusinessGreen, the Daily Express, the Times and the Financial Times.
• The Independent reports that “Rachel Reeves has been urged to act immediately to save the poorest from the impact of rising energy bills this winter”.
• The Guardian says: “Britain is ‘sleepwalking into a food crisis’ caused by extreme weather, inflation and the impacts of the Iran war – and the government is failing to take the threat seriously, food experts have said.”
• The Financial Times says that “France has given the British car industry a major boost by suggesting that the EU could allow UK-made vehicles to qualify for ‘Made in Europe’ subsidies”, including for EVs.
• The Daily Mail criticises plans to offer energy bill discounts to people living close to the new electricity pylons. 

There is extensive reaction to Tony Blair’s criticism of the Labour government (see above). Guardian columnist Larry Elliot writes of Blair: “He has also been too quick to jump on the anti-net zero bandwagon, a curious stance for a politician whose government commissioned the groundbreaking Stern review into the economics of climate change two decades ago. The choking off of crude oil shipments through the strait of Hormuz is one reason why Ed Miliband is right to be going big on renewable energy. The UK’s record-breaking temperatures this week are another.” 

An editorial in the Times supports Blair, saying “ministers would be wise to pay attention”. An editorial in the climate-sceptic Sun says that Keir Starmer is “unable to control” Ed Miliband, adding: “Blair stopped short yesterday of saying Miliband should be fired. But if Starmer was as strong a leader as three-time election winner Blair, he would already have done so.” The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph also backs Blair, quoting his comments calling Miliband’s policies a “quixotic fantasy”. There is further commentary supporting Blair’s criticisms of the Labour government, including its energy policy, from Times columnist Fraser Nelson, Sunday Telegraph editor Allistair Heath in the Daily Telegraph, David Williamson, the chief political commentator for the Daily Express and Daily Telegraph journalist Andrew Lilico.

MORE COMMENT

• Tarik Abou-Chadi, a professor of European politics at the University of Oxford, argues in the Guardian that Europe’s green parties should “embrace [UK Green party leader Zack] Polanski’s boldness”.
• Ryan Bourne, an economist at the climate-sceptic ­Cato Institute, writes in the Times that “tech philanthropy that helped fund climate activism is now facing backlash as AI data centres drive demand for energy and infrastructure growth”. 
• Reuters global energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire writes that “Asia’s early heatwave signals potential summer squeeze for coal and gas”.
• Daily Express guest columnist James Wallace writes that the UK needs “an urgent budgeted national action plan to save our freshwater”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Ayesha Tandon, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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