Climate Home News covers warnings by scientists that El Niño could amplify climate extremes such as wildfire risk, heatwaves and flooding in 2026. The Times adds that there is now a 82% chance of a “very strong” El Niño forming this year, according to the average of four weather forecasters, including the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. It adds that the weather system could push summer temperatures in the UK above 40C in 2027 and cause global droughts that would push up food prices. The Independent quotes Gabi Hegerl, professor of climate system science at the University of Edinburgh, who explains: “El Niño causes widespread impacts around the world and usually drives global mean temperatures up by exposing more of the ocean surface to warmer waters, so we expect record global mean temperatures.” It adds that the phenomenon is expected to be “supercharged” by the emergence of another weather pattern – a positive Indian Ocean Dipole – raising fire and drought risks, alongside broader global extreme weather impacts. 

Relatedly, Reuters reports that global fire outbreaks have hit a record high in Africa, Asia and elsewhere this year, with conditions expected to get worse as summer in the northern hemisphere approaches and El Niño “kicks in”. It adds that from January to April, more than 150m hectares of land were damaged by fires, 20% more than the previous record. Elsewhere, the Times reports that a new set of emissions scenarios have a lower “high” pathway ”thanks to the rapid rise of renewable energy”. The scenarios, which will underpin the next Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports, also indicate that the “best-case” pathways for “reining in warming are no longer plausible”, the article adds.

In a story featured on the frontpage, the Financial Times reports that oil and gas major Saudi Aramco has warned that the world’s stocks of petrol and jet fuel could reach “critically low levels” ahead of the summer months. It quotes Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco’s chief executive, who said yesterday that depletion of “onshore inventories” was “rapidly accelerating” amid the ongoing strait of Hormuz closures. Bloomberg adds that global oil markets are losing 100m barrels every week due to the closure, according to comments by Nasser. The Wall Street Journal notes that if the reopening of the strait is delayed by several more weeks, oil markets might not normalise until 2027.

Bloomberg reports that the European Commission has put forward updated benchmark values for its carbon market in a “bid to address concerns among some governments and manufacturers over the region’s declining competitiveness”. It adds that the new benchmarks, which would cover 2026-30, would give industries covered by the cap-and-trade programme about €4bn ($4.7bn ) more free emission permits. In the Financial Times’ Europe Express newsletter, it adds that the “free carbon allowances will come with more strings attached under plans by Brussels’ climate officials to shake up the bloc’s emissions trading system”.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Euractiv reports that “Europe’s most influential energy thinktanks” are going to merge, following reports that Agora and RAP could “create Europe’s largest green transition policy shop”.
• BusinessGreen covers a new study from Aurora Energy Research that finds that Europe’s co-located renewables and energy storage projects is expected to increase almost six-fold by 2030. 
• Bloomberg reports that the “new government of Hungarian prime minister Peter Magyar is risking a standoff with the EU over a plan to stick with Russian energy purchases”.
• Analysis in Le Monde suggests that despite being the “epicentre of global warming”, Europe is “facing the test of its contradictions”. 

The Financial Times reports that some of the world’s biggest oil companies are exploring the Alaskan Arctic again as they look to diversify their portfolios and “capitalise on Donald Trump’s promotion of fossil-fuel drilling”. It adds that ExxonMobil, Shell and Repsol are among the producers that bid a record $163m in March to secure leases of the National Petroleum Reserve of Alaska, an under-explored area estimated to hold 8.8m barrels of recoverable oil. The article notes: “Exxon and Shell’s return to explore in Alaska after an almost decade-long hiatus represents a success for the White House, which has relaxed environmental rules and greatly expanded lease sales.”

MORE ON US

• The Financial Times reports that the US is considering suspending fuel taxes on petrol and diesel, amid soaring fossil fuel prices driven by the Iran war. 
• Reuters covers moves by the Environmental Protection Agency to speed up the process for large polluters to obtain clean air permits.
• Reuters reports US state governor of Maryland, Wes Moore, is pushing for grid reforms, including long-term power contracts and requirements for data centres to pay for costly infrastructure upgrades.

China exported more new energy vehicles (NEVs) than internal combustion engine vehicles for the first time in April, as automakers expanded overseas to “offset subdued domestic demand”, reports the Wall Street Journal. The newspaper cites data from the China Passenger Car Association, saying that NEVs accounted for 52.7% of China’s total auto exports in April, doubling to 406,000 units. Bloomberg reports China’s auto sales fell 21.5% to 1.4m, the lowest figure since 2022, as NEV sales were not “strong enough to counter the slump” in traditional vehicles. The outlet adds that NEV sales fell 6.8%, indicating that a “potential boost” from rising oil prices could not “reverse domestic softness” due to the “rollback of trade-in subsidies and the return of a purchasing tax on EVs”. Reuters reports that the US auto industry and lawmakers are calling on Donald Trump, who is scheduled to visit China this week, not to offer China “any access” to the US auto market.

MORE ON CHINA

• China has unveiled new measures to assess whether provincial-level governments are “effectively implementing the ‘Beautiful China’ initiative”, reports China Daily.
• China’s NEA issued a plan to ensure energy supply for computing infrastructure and promote the low-carbon transformation of computing facilities, reports BJX News.
• Chinese premier Li Qiang stressed the strengthening of construction for new-type electricity grids at an executive meeting of the State Council, reports Xinhua.
• A total of 50 countries recorded solar imports from China in March, as Chinese low-carbon technology companies push to capitalise on rising demand, reports Bloomberg.
• Le Monde reports China is the only country able to offer the technologies needed for energy transition at an “affordable price”.
• Reuters: “China’s factory inflation hits 45-month high on energy price shock.”

Reuters reports that New Zealand is set to change climate legislation to prevent courts from finding companies liable for climate change-related harm caused by greenhouse gas emissions. It adds that the amendment to the Climate Change Response ​Act 2002, would apply to both current and future court proceedings, including a high court case currently underway against six major emitters. Bloomberg adds that this case alleges that emissions from six companies adds to damage from climate change creating a nuisance, and is expected to be heard later this year.

The Times reports that the sale of pure electric cars in the UK reached a record high in the first three months of 2026. It continues that figures from Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) suggest that almost 87,000 electric vehicles (EVs) were sold between January and March, marking a 32% year-on-year increase. The article notes that this is the best sales figures for any quarter on record for EVs, helping to bring pure electrics to a new high in market share of 4.3%. 

MORE ON EVS

• Reuters covers data from New Automotive, which suggests countries in the European Economic Area and Switzerland have committed €200bn ($235bn) to their “EV ecosystem”. 
• The Guardian reports that the number of battery-linked fires that firefighters were called out to has increased 147% over the last three years, with EV fires up 133%, but the number of EVs has tripled during that time. 

The Guardian reports that German energy group E.ON has agreed to buy UK rival Ovo, in a “deal that would create Britain’s biggest gas and electricity supplier by number of households served”. It adds that combined the company would supply 9.6m customers, overtaking the current market leader, Octopus, which serves almost 8m homes. The Financial Times adds that while the companies have not disclosed a price for the sale, the newspaper has previously reported it would be in the £550m-600m range. Bloomberg notes that Ovo has been struggling to meet tougher financial resilience rules brought in by regulator Ofgem following the 2022 energy crisis. It adds: “The deal underscores how tighter regulation and rising customer debt are reshaping the UK retail market, favouring larger suppliers with the balance sheet to absorb shocks.”

MORE ON UK 

• The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph covers new figures from analysts Montel that suggest the UK generated 2.8% more emissions from electricity generation in 2025, due to an increased use of gas for grid services. [Carbon Brief analysis found that emissions in the UK fell by 2.4% in 2025, helped by gas use falling to a 34-year low while the UK government suggested they fell by 1.8%.]
• The Financial Times reports that HSBC has convened a meeting of UK banks to “address mounting pressure from regulators and investors to disclose more information on climate risks embedded in their loan books”.
• Reuters reports that the UK government’s energy debt relief scheme is delayed, with industry warning that total arrears could reach £7bn by the end of 2026.
• The Daily Telegraph reports that “Britain’s net-zero crusade is making it harder to sell your home”, given that “banks and buyers prioritise green credentials”. 
• The Daily Telegraph covers new analysis by EY that suggests the economy was £30bn smaller than it could have been due to a surge in power costs, pointing to a reliance on gas as well as policy costs.

In the Guardian, Mark Leonard, co-founder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations thinktank, argues that with China and Europe set to lose the most from the high energy prices triggered by the Iran war, the latter must “must consider giving Beijing a dose of its own medicine”. He continues that over recent decades Europe has been outsourcing its energy supplies to Russia and the Gulf, while China has been“cornering the global market in rare earths, critical minerals and the technologies of the future”. He discusses the benefits of Europe turning to clean energy amid the Iran war, but the reliance the continent has on China for energy technologies and EVs. He concludes: “Once European governments start trying to survive chaos rather than preserving order, they will be better able to withstand the full range of threats that emerge in our age of un-order.”

MORE IN IRAN WAR COMMENT 

• An editorial in the Washington Post discusses the “gimmicky push to suspend the federal gas tax” as a rare area of bipartisan agreement amid the response to the Iran war in the US.

In Climate Home News, Hina West, managing director of not-for-profit Climate Strategies and one of the co-hosts of the academic dialogue at the first Global Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels in Colombia last month, discusses the conference. She writes that “the stakes could not have been higher. As the planet grapples with catastrophic warming, economic instability and geopolitical conflicts fuelled by fossil fuel dependence, this conference represented a rare opportunity to reshape global energy governance, putting science and justice at the core.” She discusses the academic recommendations going into the conference, challenges with climate finance and the need for social dialogue and public participation. She concludes: “What we need now is not another layer of dialogue or more diagnosis, but concrete action: binding and consistent commitments, robust and accountable governance, and finance that prioritises people and the planet.” 

MORE IN COMMENT 

• The New York Times carries two climate-focused opinion pieces: an editorial looking at permitting laws and a piece by author Gary Ferguson exploring the “water doom loop”. 
• An editorial in the climate-sceptic Daily Mail hits out at “Ed Miliband’s crazed net-zero obsession” in passing, amid arguing that having Andy Burnham, mayor of Greater Manchester, as leader “would be bad for Britain”.
• An editorial in the climate-sceptic Sun discusses the proposed plans to nationalise British Steel, dubbing net-zero policy “mad” and listing it as a reason the steel works is “going bust”. 
• In the Daily Telegraph, climate-sceptic Reform UK shadow chancellor Robert Jenrick lists net-zero as one of the country’s “woes”. 
• In the Times, columnist Giles Coren notes that a plank of Reform’s platform is built on climate change denial, before quipping that “this isn’t some piffling threat like so-called ‘rising sea levels’…this is the end of the great British cuppa”, following news that rising temperatures are impacting tea leaves.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Molly Lempriere, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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