There is widespread coverage of the news that the forecasted event of the natural weather phenomenon El Niño has now started, according to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). BBC News reports that the US agency “declared that El Niño conditions are now under way in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperatures having risen sharply in recent months”. It continues: “Many forecasts suggest this could end up as a so-called ‘super’ El Niño, and even be among the strongest ever recorded. Coming on top of decades of human-caused warming, it could bring another record-hot year – most likely in 2027 – with disruption to weather, food supplies and economies running well into that year.” The Associated Press reports that this El Niño is “poised to reach historic strength and intensify extreme weather events across the globe”. It continues: “The phenomenon is predicted to rival or even surpass the record-setting El Niño of 1997, which caused billions in damages through heatwaves, floods, droughts, tornadoes and wildfires.”

The New York Times reports that NOAA’s announcement “means that, technically speaking, temperatures in the equatorial Pacific have held at 0.5C above the longer-term average for several months and that scientists have observed atmospheric shifts conducive for an El Niño”. It continues: “NOAA said there is a 63% chance of the sea-surface temperatures climbing 2C above the norm, making for a ‘very strong’ event. Many forecasts also suggest this year’s El Niño could reach even higher, beyond 3C, which would be the largest on record.” The Financial Times reports that the World Bank has warned of a “new shock to global food prices as the threat of strong El Niño weather conditions risks piling pressure on agriculture from high fertiliser costs driven by the Iran war”. There is further coverage in Reuters, Bloomberg, Scientific American and Agence France-Presse, among others.

Politico reports that “oil industry allies” are targeting a “forthcoming report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine that will examine research into the ways corporate climate pollution is intensifying natural disasters”. It continues: “The heightened scrutiny – which involves a secretive opposition research group scouring scientists’ emails – has prompted two people to leave the 15-person panel tasked with producing the report. The findings are expected to be released as soon as this month, according to three people who were granted anonymity to speak about the panel’s work.” It quotes Alice Hill, a former federal prosecutor and California state judge who worked on climate policy in the Obama White House, who says: “The goal is to keep attribution science out of court. We see a pattern of that. And what is the ultimate reason for that? To shield the fossil fuel companies from liability.” [For more on attribution science, see Carbon Brief’s interactive map and in-depth explainer.]

MORE ON US

• Bloomberg: “Big US solar and battery project lines up $3.5bn financing.”

German chancellor Friedrich Merz has called on the EU to “counter trade ‘distortions’ as the bloc weighs tougher measures against China”, ahead of a meeting between leaders next week in Brussels, reports Bloomberg. It adds that the EU has “increasingly criticised Beijing for its failure to open its economy and address the flow of subsidised products into its market. Beijing has also restricted exports of critical materials that European companies need, such as semiconductors and rare-earth minerals.” At the invitation of French president Emmanuel Macron, Chinese vice-premier Zhang Guoqing attended a video conference with G7 countries yesterday to discuss “trade imbalances”, reports Bloomberg. State-run newspaper China Daily says that China and the EU agreed to work toward an “investment consultation mechanism”, with the aim of stabilising “bilateral economic and trade relations”.

Reuters reports that Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker BYD is looking to take over an “existing factory in southern Europe” for its second assembly plant. The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post quotes Soh Weiming, CEO of Renault China, as saying it is questionable whether Chinese companies will bring EV technology to Europe. People’s Daily says that blaming China for the strength of its cleantech sectors will “do little to address Europe’s industrial challenges”. A commentary by state news agency Xinhua says that Europe’s “de-risking” strategy would “almost inevitably” discourage Chinese companies from investing in the EU. An editorial in the state-supporting newspaper Global Times says China’s leading position in rare-earth magnets and solar wafers is primarily the result of “long-term strategic investment”, not foreign know-how. Another Global Times commentary says that the west’s “groundless ‘economic threat’ narrative” and “trade restrictions against China…fall apart, especially in the new-energy field”.

MORE ON CHINA

• Reuters says the recent decline in China’s oil use is “especially steep”, indicating that China can operate on less fuel than previously thought.
• South China Morning Post: “Driven by AI demand, China on track to pass US as top nuclear energy producer.”
• Zheng Shanjie, head of the NDRC, has called for strengthening the construction of new power grids and addressing “involution”, reports BJX News.
• China has issued a new action plan on human rights that “affirms the importance of tackling climate change”, reports Xinhua.
• Caixin says China’s shift to EVs is causing a “growing shortfall” in tax revenue from petrol consumption, a key funding source for the country’s road network. It notes that the lack of funding was also a problem before widespread EV adoption. 
• Reuters reports China’s NEA and Saudi Aramco exchanged views on global energy security and oil and gas cooperation on Tuesday in Beijing.

The Times reports that “upgrading Britain’s electricity grid to meet Labour’s clean energy goal will be cheaper if lines are run overhead rather than burying cables, independent studies have suggested”. The newspaper says that Labour’s efforts to rapidly expand the electricity grid has “triggered opposition from groups opposed to pylons”, adding: “However, a pair of studies commissioned by the government found underground options would be more expensive, even if using newer techniques. They said eschewing overhead pylons risked increasing energy bills by more than already expected.”

MORE ON UK

• The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph speaks to the chief executive of EDF energy, who has called for a “pause” on windfarms in the UK, instead urging the government to accelerate the rollout of EVs, heat pumps and datacentres to use surplus power.
• Conservative MP Esther McVey claims in the Daily Express that John Healey’s resignation as defence secretary is linked to a “row” with prime minister Keir Starmer over Healey’s wish to “divert funds from a £60bn pot earmarked for net-zero” for defence.
• The Independent: “El Niño could spark ‘milder, wetter and windier’ UK autumn, Met Office warns.”

Jeffrey Currie, senior adviser at the Carlyle Group, a private equity firm, writes in the Financial Times that “a new regime is holding sway in energy markets and in turn the global economy: the new joule order”. He continues: “We are now in an era in which energy security – not climate policy, not cost efficiency – has become a dominant force shaping investment flows, geopolitical alliances and commodity prices…China prepared. While Washington and Brussels spent 25 years polarised between green and brown energy, Beijing built both – 1.2 terawatts of solar, the world’s largest nuclear pipeline, an EV fleet now displacing more than one million barrels a day, according to Rhodium group estimates. None of it was justified as climate policy. It was insurance.”

MORE COMMENT

• Vishal Prasad, director of Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change, writes in Climate Home News: “The Pacific made history in the courts – now we must do it in the negotiations.”
• The Financial Times explores whether turning to solar can help cut UK households’ energy bills.
• The Atlantic profiles climate scientist Dr Daniel Swain, who “has a knack for breaking down the complexities of climate and weather into precise but accessible ideas”.
• Times columnist Harry Wallop says the closure of UK stoneware maker Denby was “not helped” by “Labour and net-zero”, but that the company “crafted its own demise”.
• An editorial in the climate-sceptic Sun says that Ed Miliband’s “net-zero fanaticism now borders on a threat to national security” and urges Keir Starmer to scrap carbon capture schemes.
• Journalist Izabella Kaminska writes in the Daily Telegraph that the “Iran war is a smokescreen for a loom­ing oil mar­ket crunch as Chinese demand wanes”.