Reuters reports that Germany is expected to miss its 2030 climate goals and emit more carbon dioxide (CO2) than previously forecast, according to an independent advisory body. It notes that the country is aiming to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 65% from 1990 levels by 2030, ahead of being “climate neutral” by 2045. The article adds that so far it has cut emissions by about 48%. Deutsche Welle reports that the Council of ‌Experts on Climate Change now thinks that Germany could overshoot its goal by up to 100m tonnes of CO2 (MtCO2). It adds that the German environment agency had only predicted a possible overshoot of 4.5MtCO2. Bloomberg notes the projections from the advisory group come after the government set out an €8bn plan to cut carbon in March. It adds that the Iran war is putting pressure on households and businesses, leading the government to abandon a clean heating law and approve plans for new gas-fired power plants.

MORE ON EUROPE

• Politico covers a letter from Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni to European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, pressing the EU to loosen its fiscal rules to help governments manage soaring energy prices. 
• The Times reports that Ford has unveiled new hybrid cars, “rowing back” on its “commitment to become an all-electric car brand in Europe by 2030”.
• Reuters reports that the European Commission is considering providing more CO2 permits to fertiliser companies, amid surging costs triggered by the Iran war.
• Reuters covers comments by German finance minister Lars Klingbeil, saying that G7 countries have options to “reduce their dependency on rare earths [from China], but have no time to lose”.
• The Wall Street Journal reports that European gas prices have broken €50 per megawatt-hour as “traders see little sign of a resolution in the Middle East”.

The latest customs data shows China’s exports of solar cells grew 60% by volume in April compared with a year ago, “defying expectations that the removal of tax rebates would damp overseas demand”, reports Bloomberg. In the first four months of the year, reports Securities Daily, exports of electric vehicles (EVs), batteries and wind turbines rose by 68%, 43% and 41%, respectively, marking what it calls the “continued rise in the international competitiveness of China’s green and high-end manufacturing industries”. The Communist Party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily publishes an article under the byline He Yin – indicating the views of party leadership on foreign policy – saying that Chinese manufacturing is accelerating its “green transformation”. The world’s largest producer of two-wheel EVs, China-based Yadea, is accelerating expansion efforts in the UK and Europe amid the Iran war, which has driven up oil prices, according to the Financial Times.

Separately, the Financial Times also reports that the EU is “drawing up plans to force European companies to buy critical components from at least three different suppliers” to cut the bloc’s dependence on China. It cites unnamed officials saying that EU trade commissioner Maroš Šefčovič wants to “insulate” companies from China’s “weaponisation of trade”. An editorial in the state-supporting newspaper Global Times says China’s new-energy equipment is a “timely boost to Europe’s green transformation and manufacturing upgrade”, adding that the EU should be more “pragmatic”, more “cooperative” and “less protectionist”. It adds that provisions in the EU’s Industrial Accelerator Act to limit foreign involvement in “strategic” clean-energy sectors “unfairly increase[s] the localisation and compliance costs for foreign investors” and “contradict[s] the important consensus reached by Chinese and EU leaders on properly handling frictions and differences”.

MORE ON CHINA

• Guangming Daily reports that China’s agricultural carbon emissions have “stabilised” and carbon intensity continues to decline.
• An article on the first page of the People’s Daily print edition says some in the US argue that blocking Chinese cleantech will mean missing out on “this wave of development”.
• People’s Daily: “930m green certificates traded nationwide in 2025, setting a new record.”
• China has raised 6bn yuan ($0.88bn) overseas through “green” sovereign bonds, reports China News Service. Economic Daily writes on the need for “diverse green finance” to support carbon reduction.
• Sichuan province is updating its emergency response systems to cope with “increasingly frequent extreme weather and climate events”, says Guangming Daily.
• Some 40% of hydrogen companies in China could disappear this year, with only 10% of companies remaining by 2029, reports Jiemian.

In a frontpage story, the Guardian says that disease outbreaks are becoming “more likely due to the climate crisis and armed conflict”, according to a new report. It adds that the report from the Global Preparedness Monitoring Board (GPMB) finds that “as infectious disease outbreaks become more frequent, they are also becoming more damaging”, warning that pandemic risk is outpacing investment. It notes that the report comes amid global attention on a hantavirus outbreak on a cruise ship and a public health emergency in the Democratic Republic of Congo after at least 87 Ebola deaths. Relatedly, Climate Home News reports that informing people about health risks related to climate change is twice as likely to spur public support for climate action than a focus on economics or the environment. 

Reuters covers comments by Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, who has warned that there are only a few weeks of commercial oil inventories remaining, due to the Iran war and the closure of the strait of Hormuz. The newswire adds that Birol told reporters that the release of strategic oil reserves has added 2.5m barrels of oil per day to the market, but cautioned that these reserves “are not endless”. Bloomberg adds that Birol, who was speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a G7 meeting in Paris, highlighted that the spike in fertiliser and diesel prices caused by the war comes at the start of the travel and crop-planting season. In a piece featured on its frontpage, the Daily Telegraph quotes Birol saying: “This could have major implications for the food prices and together with the higher energy prices they might give a big push to inflation numbers.”

MORE ON OIL

• The Financial Times reports that European oil refiners and airlines are “growing more confident the continent can avoid outright jet fuel shortages this summer”. 
• The Guardian reports that oil prices rose and “global bonds wobbled” on Monday, following fresh tensions in the Middle East.
• The Associated Press reports that Asian stock markets are “largely retreating” and oil prices are surging following the latest threats from US president Donald Trump.
• Reuters reports that a record 9.9m barrels of oil have been withdrawn from the US strategic reserve, pushing levels down to the lowest levels in two years.

The Financial Times reports that utility NextEra Energy has agreed a “megadeal” with rival Dominion Energy to create a “$420bn power behemoth” in the US. It adds that the deal, the fourth-largest of all time, would create a US utility with a customer base of more than 10m homes and businesses. The Associated Press reports that NextEra Energy is looking to acquire Dominion in an all-stock deal valued at around $67bn. The Guardian notes that: “The deal comes as the appetite for energy sources has swelled with the construction of massive datacenters across the country, built largely to supply rising demand for AI.” Reuters notes that if approved, the merger would create the third-biggest US energy company, behind oil majors Exxon and Chevron. Bloomberg quotes NextEra CEO John Ketchum saying: “This is a defining moment. The country needs more energy infrastructure built faster, more efficiently and more affordably than ever before.” Al Jazeera, the Wall Street Journal and others all cover the news.

MORE ON US

• Both the New York Times and the Associated Press carry stories breaking down recent false claims by Trump regarding the “RCP8.5” climate scenario. 
• The Guardian says the Trump administration’s cuts to climate and weather data programming could make forecasts “less reliable when they are needed most”.
• Bloomberg reports that the US has issued a new waiver allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products that are already loaded on tankers.
• Reuters reports that US House lawmakers have proposed legislation that would include a $130 per year tax on EVs, purportedly to help pay for road repairs.
• Reuters covers a confirmation from the US that “China will address US concerns about rare-earth shortages”.

Household energy bills are set to rise by £200 a year from July due to the Middle East conflict, reports the Times, citing the latest forecasts from consultancy Cornwall Energy. It says: “While energy consumption typically falls during the warmer months, experts warned that the elevated cap is likely to persist into the high-demand winter period.” The Guardian has ongoing coverage of reports that chancellor Rachel Reeves is planning to cancel a rise in fuel duty as part of a set of measures to tackle the cost of living. The article notes that Reeves has been looking at a range of other options, including subsidising some people’s energy bills. It adds that “because energy usage is much lower in the [summer], the chancellor wants to wait until later in the year before deciding how much to spend on subsidising bills”. An editorial in the climate-sceptic Sun welcomes the news.

MORE ON UK 

• The Daily Mail claims that the UK has “backtracked on its pledge to ban slave labour from its renewable supply chain”. An accompanying Daily Mail editorial is titled: “Slaves to net-zero.”

Bloomberg reports that Kenya has moved to cut diesel prices after at least four people died during protests over surging fuel costs. It adds that authorities have reduced diesel prices by 7% “following a petition by public-transport sector operators”. The Associated Press adds that 30 people were also injured, amid the protests that included a nationwide public transport strike. It notes that Kenya’s fuel prices hit a record high last week, with diesel pricing increasing by 24% and petrol by 8%. The article notes that the government has attributed these increases to the Iran war and its impact on energy supplies, while reducing taxes to “lessen the shock for consumers”.

In the Guardian, Democratic congressman Lloyd Doggett and academic Michael Shank argue that “energy security comes from using local, renewable resources to power, heat and cool communities, as Ukraine is doing”. They write: “Donald Trump’s unjustified war on Iran and the resulting global fuel crisis is a continuing reminder that true energy security and independence will continue to elude us so long as we remain dependent on fossil fuels.” They say that “Trump and his Republican followers seek to keep the US addicted to fossilised thinking”, adding that the administration is “weaponising” the Department of Defence to stall onshore wind, repealing renewable energy tax incentives and bribing developers to clean-energy abandon projects. They conclude: “Transitioning off the fuels that start wars, and transitioning on to the energies that are decentralised, infinite and available in every community and country on this planet: that’s what real freedom looks like – and it’s all within our grasp.”

MORE IN COMMENT

• The Financial Times, Bloomberg and Reuters all carry comment pieces focused on the NextEra and Dominion merger, and how AI is driving change in the energy sector.
• A piece in Reuters by energy columnist Ron Bousso argues that the US dollar-dominated global oil-trading system is “being tested” by the Iran war.
• At the Climate Brink Substack, Zeke Hausfather, Glen Peters and Piers Forster look at the “death of RCP8.5” following Trump weighing in on the emissions scenario. 
• In Climate Home News, researchers Kate Williamson and Magnus Benzie ask why politicians are not responding to the growing climate threats facing the UK. 

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Molly Lempriere, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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