Oil prices rose briefly above $80 per barrel yesterday, after US president Donald Trump declared that the US-Iran ceasefire was “over”, reports the Times. The newspaper says the price of oil saw its biggest daily percentage rise since 1 May. The Guardian reports that “a series of attacks on fossil-fuel tankers near the strait of Hormuz led Trump to declare that the ceasefire deal with Iran was over”. It adds: “At least four oil and gas tankers have turned back from trying to transit the strait, according to ship-tracking data, which has hampered efforts to normalise flows of oil and gas through the vital trade route after months of disruption.” Politico says: “Some market analysts are saying they’re not expecting prices to climb much higher.” The New York Times, Reuters, Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, the Daily Telegraph and Axios also cover the news.

MORE ON OIL AND GAS

• The Financial Times says Russia has banned diesel exports after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries triggered the country’s “worst fuel crisis since the collapse of the Soviet Union, while putting further strain on global energy markets”.
• Bloomberg says: “Chicago soybean oil futures climbed to a three-week high after fresh US military strikes on Iran sparked a rally in crude prices.”
• Bloomberg says: “Vietnam is considering developing more coal-fired capacity to meet its power needs as the US-Iran war constrains supplies of liquefied natural gas.”
• The Associated Press adds that the International Monetary Fund expects the global economy to expand by a “sluggish” 3% in 2026, due to the Iran war and AI.
  

Western Europe has experienced its warmest June on record, according to the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, reports Reuters. The newswire says: “The average temperature in Western Europe last month was 20.74C, more ​than 3C above the average for June during 1991-2020, the data showed.” The Guardian adds: “Globally, June 2026 was 0.56C hotter than the 1991-2020 average and 1.39C hotter than preindustrial levels, making it the second-warmest June on record, the agency found. The planet’s oceans were hotter than scientists had ever seen them.” The New York Times and Euractiv also cover the news. 

In ongoing coverage of extreme heat in the UK, the Press Association reports that legal cases have been disrupted as courts become too hot. The Daily Mail reports on a “mass sleep deprivation event” and the Press Association covers a wildfire warning. The Guardian reports that UK waters are being hit by an “extreme” marine heatwave, according to the UK Met Office. The Daily Mail says “extreme” temperature spikes of 5C above normal could be seen in UK waters and the heat has driven a surge in octopus numbers, while the Daily Telegraph says lobsters are “at risk”. Bloomberg reports that “the UK grid operator issued another warning over tight electricity supplies for Thursday evening as a heatwave stretching across Europe strains power systems”.  BBC News explains why heatwaves “hit women harder”. 

Separately, Bloomberg reports that in France, up to five nuclear plants “could face output curbs in the coming days as soaring temperatures affect rivers used for cooling”. The Guardian says “trades unions are mounting a push for new laws to counter deadly heat stress”. Euractiv says: “There were angry exchanges in European Parliament on Wednesday as lawmakers debated how to prepare for increasingly frequent and intense heatwaves and forest fires.”

MORE ON EUROPE

• Reuters reports that in a review of the EU’s emission trading system, companies could receive more free carbon permits. However, waste incinerator plants “will have to pay for their CO2 emissions”, says another Reuters article. 
• E&E News says: “Seven EU-member countries have sent a statement to the European Commission calling for it to resist gutting the emissions trading system in its review of the cap-and-trade regime, due out next week.” 
• Bloomberg says: “The European Union will allow governments to include nuclear power as one of the categories of energy spending that qualify for greater flexibility under the bloc’s strict budgetary rules.”
• The Guardian reports that Estonia, Luxembourg and UK take the top three spots in the biennial Yale University “environmental scorecard”.
• Reuters covers a new study which finds that climate change could lower Italy’s GDP in 2050 by 2-6%.
• Bloomberg says: “The European Parliament blocked a move to strip soy-based biofuels of their renewable status, which would have phased out their contribution to European Union renewable energy targets by 2030.”

The UK government has granted the Sizewell B nuclear plant a 20-year life extension, which will see it producing electricity until 2055, reports the Guardian. The newspaper continues: “Sizewell B in Suffolk was due to shut down within the next decade, but under a deal with the government its lifetime will be extended to 60 years to help meet the UK’s growing demand for low-carbon electricity.” The Financial Times reports that the plant’s owners will sign a “contract for difference”, in which it will receive £70.50 per megawatt hour in 2025 prices “indexed to inflation, for the 20 years between 2035 and 2055”. Reuters, Bloomberg, the Daily Telegraph, BusinessGreen, BBC News and the Times all have the story.

MORE ON UK

• BBC News: “Jackdaw owner says [proposed] gas field will ‘not materially influence’ climate change.”
• The Scotsman: “Rosebank and Jackdaw bosses call for ‘timely approval’ to make ‘major contribution’ to winter energy demands.”
• The Daily Mail reports that carbon dioxide emissions from the Drax power station “hit a record high last year”. 
• The Guardian reports that MPs have “demanded” full publication of a report, which it says finds that “the collapse of ecosystems overseas would have catastrophic consequences for the UK’s national security”.
• BBC News reports that plans to build one of the largest solar farms in the UK have been approved.
  

Scientists warn that China’s extreme weather will “only grow more frequent this year”, reports Reuters. It also cites them saying that climate change and the emergence of El Niño this year are exposing China to “destructive weather events”, which will “test” the country’s “resilience”. Financial news outlet Caixin reports flooding triggered by Typhoon Maysak has killed six people in China’s southern Guangxi. Elderly villagers told Chinese newspaper Southern Weekly that they had never seen an “entire village submerged in floodwaters in their lifetime”. Xiamen University’s Wu Wei tells the Communist Party-affiliated newspaper People’s Daily that climate uncertainty is causing fluctuations in China’s power supply this summer. State-run newspaper China Daily reports that the Communist Party has allocated 60m yuan ($8.8m) to support flood prevention and disaster relief. China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has allocated 50m yuan ($7.4m) to support Hubei province, reports state broadcaster CCTV.

MORE ON CHINA

• China’s domestic auto sales fell 23.4% in June, continuing a nine-month trend, while exports jumped 82.1%, reports Reuters.
• People’s Daily publishes an article under the byline Zhong Sheng – indicating the views of party leadership on international affairs – saying that the EU’s “overcapacity” claim about China exposes its “inability to address its own structural problems”.
• A Global Times editorial argues that the competitiveness of Chinese industry relies on “cost-control capabilities and technological advantages” rather than “domestic subsidies”.
• A People’s Daily comment says that as western countries’ energy policies “repeatedly shifted”, China works in a “consistent manner” to elevate renewable energy to a leading role.
• China Environment News publishes an article by “this paper’s commentator” saying China will use the 15th “five-year plan” to “actively address climate change”.
• Bloomberg: “Tencent inks first deal for carbon-removal credits outside China.”

Commenting on the ongoing oil crisis, Bloomberg opinion columnist David Fickling writes that governments across Asia are building new storage terminals and refineries to “guard against future shocks”. He says that “with the US and Iran once again trading blows this week…an insurance policy seems like plain good sense”. But he argues that governments should also consider electrification. Fickling continues: “Governments could afford to push a lot harder on this front, by diverting more of their oil-shock insurance spending to EV subsidies and charging networks, instead of funding petroleum inventories. Building up oil reserves isn’t cheap…Electrification is an under-appreciated alternative.” For example, he notes that “China’s battery-powered cars and trucks are currently displacing in the region of 1.8m barrels a day of oil demand”. He concludes: “The best protection against the next oil shock is not having to use so much oil in the first place.”

MORE COMMENT

• Reuters energy columnist Ron Bousso writes that the “Trump-Iran standoff threatens chronic Gulf oil instability”. 
• For the Guardian, consulting economist Nicki Hutley says that “at a time when our best answer to the climate crisis is to electrify as fast as possible…allowing [AI] energy vampires to strain grids could slow the transition to net-zero emissions”. 
• The Times gives space to the author of a report from right-wing thinktank Policy Exchange, who says the UK must “withdraw” from the “compulsory jurisdiction” of the International Court of Justice to “save Britain from having to pay climate reparations”.
• Guardian columnist George Monbiot argues that incoming UK prime minister Andy Burnham should cancel the government’s carbon-capture and storage programme.
• Reuters global energy transition columnist Gavin Maguire writes that “Europe’s next climate adaptation boom isn’t solar panels – it’s asphalt”. 
• Rasmus Benestad, a scientist at the Norwegian Meteorological Institute, writes for RealClimate that this year’s El Niño is “remarkable”, noting that it “may well be at strengths by the end of the year that we have not seen before”.

Writing for Foreign Policy, Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency, says that the conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has “shattered” confidence in the strait of Hormuz, helping to “redraw” the “global energy map” according to “who trusts whom”. He explains that along with Russian exports, the strait had been one of the “two main arteries for international trade in oil and gas”. Birol continues that after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Hormuz crisis “both trade relationships – which had seemed to be built on unshakable economic logic – are now profoundly changed”. He adds that in his conversations with country and corporate leaders, “the prevailing view is that there is no going back to the way things were before the war began”. The result, says Birol, could be “more demand for renewables, nuclear power, EVs and batteries – but also coal in some cases”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Ayesha Tandon with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Simon Evans.

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