The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil supply will fall short of  total demand this year, upending its previous projection of a surplus, reports Reuters. In its update for April, the organisation reportedly said the world is “drawing oil inventories at a record pace as importing countries confront unprecedented disruptions to Middle Eastern supply”. Reuters notes that the IEA has replaced a previous projection of a 410,000 barrels per day (bpd) oil surplus in 2026 in last month’s report with a forecast that supply will come in 1.78m bpd below demand. It continues that the IEA “sees demand falling by ⁠420,000 bpd this year, compared with a previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop”. CNBC notes that a report released by OPEC yesterday offers a “rosier” outlook on oil demand than the IEA.  The oil cartel has forecast a demand for 1.2m bpd in 2026, down from about 1.4m bpd previously. Bloomberg says that Saudi Arabia reported to OPEC that its oil output in April fell to its lowest output since 1990.

Separately, Reuters reports on IEA’s figures that show that jet fuel supplies in Europe “plummeted” in April, with the region “falling short” on replacing those flows. The newswire notes the IEA’s advice is that importing regions, such as Europe, replace a minimum of 80% and preferably 90% of lost jet fuel import volumes from the Middle East. And yet, it says, in April, European imports reached only 70% of their March level. The Associated Press covers comments from EU energy commissioner Dan Jørgenson, who told reporters yesterday that while there is no immediate threat to jet fuel supplies, the possibility of a longer-term shortage cannot be ruled out. The Danish politician reportedly said: ”Really, this is not an energy crisis. This is a fossil fuel crisis”. Reuters reports that Air India has cut international flights amid airspace restrictions and high fuel costs. In a long-read headlined “the Iran war and the future of cheap flights”, the Financial Times notes that the current situation “does not augur well for the future of low-cost travel”. Politico says private jet use in Europe is soaring despite concerns about fuel supply.

MORE ON OIL SHOCK

• In a bid to reduce its dependence on imported energy, India has allocated £4bn to converting its coal reserves into gas, reports Bloomberg. President Narendra Modi has also cut the size of its motorcode to save fuel, says Reuters.
• Brazil’s government announced additional fuel subsidies to cushion the impact of the Iran war on inflation and boost president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s popularity ahead of this year’s election, reports Bloomberg.
• Reuters: “Sweden cuts fuel tax as part of $1.9bn energy relief.”
• The New York Times reports that sales of electric vehicles are “booming” in Europe, Asia and Latin America as fuel prices rise – but have “declined” in the US and China.
• CNBC reports that Donald Trump’s proposal for a “gas tax holiday” to ease cost-of-living concerns has met opposition “not just from his political foes, but also from the Republican-leaning trucking and construction sectors”.

Ahead of an EU energy crisis summit being held today in Nicosia, Cyprus, Euractiv reports on calls from Greece, Cyprus and Romania to exploit the Mediterranean’s gas reserves. It covers comments made by Cyprus energy minister Michael Damianos, who said: “There’s no doubt that we will need fossil fuels. Natural gas is greener than anything else and we do have some reserves.” The outlet notes that this proposal was opposed by ministers from Spain and Ireland. In a press conference, Spain’s energy transition minister Sara Aageston told reporters that the country’s reliance on renewables had helped keep the country’s power prices down during the crisis, says Bloomberg. She said in 2018, gas determined Spain’s power prices 75% of the time, but that ratio has now dropped to 10%, resulting in “more competitive power prices for citizens and the industry”, according to the outlet. In a separate piece, Euractiv notes there is no mention of a windfall tax on oil and gas profits in “catalogue of best practices” drawn from around Europe released ahead of the meeting. However, Reuters reports that the Greek prime minister Stavros Papastavrou said EU nations would be discussing a windfall tax, with six nations – including Spain – said to be in favour. 

MORE ON EUROPE

• A draft EU fertiliser strategy due next week sets out plans for the bloc to start stockpiling fertilisers to reduce future gas price shocks, reports Bloomberg.
• Germany’s cabinet agreed to scrap a “contentious” heating law which would have required new building heating systems to use at least 65% renewable energy, says Bloomberg.
• Reuters notes Hungary’s new government “plans to diversify energy sources while ​maintaining access” to both pipelines carrying oil to the country.
• French finance minister Roland Lescure ‌said yesterday that G7 countries are not planning to discuss a release of new oil ​stocks at next week’s summit, says Reuters.
• New York Times: “Lithuania’s peat bogs could help the climate and defend the border, too.”

Scientists have warned that current heat safety measures planned for the men’s 2026 World Cup are “inadequate” and could put players at “risk of serious harm”, reports BBC News. The outlet notes that the 20 health, climate and sports performance experts have said in an open letter that Fifa’s guidelines are “out of step with the current science” and “impossible to justify”. Temperatures at 14 of the 16 stadiums being used could “exceed dangerous levels”, according to the experts, who are calling on the football governing body to introduce “stronger protections, including longer cooling breaks and clearer protocols for delaying or postponing games in extreme conditions”, it says. BBC News continues that new analysis from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) service reveals players and fans “face a much higher risk of gruelling heat and humidity at the tournament compared with the 1994 World Cup on the same continent”. Scientific American and Reuters also cover the WWA findings.

China-based clean tech firms have scrapped about $2.8bn in planned US manufacturing projects in 2025, with more than half of proposed investments since 2022 cancelled, paused or delayed by March, reports Bloomberg, citing the Rhodium Group. Reuters says China and the US will consider “extending a truce on Chinese rare earth export curbs” at the Trump-Xi meeting. Natixis chief Asia-Pacific economist Alicia Garcia-Herrero tells the Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post that the meeting may include discussions on a “deal between Ford and China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Ltd (CATL)”, adding that  “Trump needs to sell the job aspect of [green energy]”. Bloomberg says that if such a collaboration is approved, it could be a “blueprint for more”. According to Politico, the Iran war is “fuelling China’s clean energy surge” ahead of the Trump-Xi talks. A second Politico article has “five things to know about Trump, China and wind power”.

In further coverage, Bloomberg covers allegations by US solar makers that Chinese solar manufacturers are practicing “tariff evasion through Ethiopia”. Axios says that Trump “faces a tough climb turning his ‘energy dominance agenda’ into energy wins” when he meets Xi. And a comment article by state news agency Xinhua says climate change cannot be addressed without the “joint efforts” of China and the US.

MORE ON CHINA

• Xi Jinping has called for China and Tajikistan to expand cooperation in areas such as green energy, reports International Energy Net.
• China’s “manufacturing heartland” Guangdong is facing pressure on power supplies due to the Iran war, says Bloomberg. Independent refiners in China are “cutting fuel output on crumbling margins”, reports Reuters.
• The NEA has issued new regulations to standardise “quota-setting and cost calculation work” for electric power construction projects, reports BJX News.
• Study Times publishes an article discussing Chinese president Xi Jinping’s view that “energy is a strategic issue in development”.
• Dialogue Earth: “After a UK knock-back, China’s wind power companies fight on in Europe.”

BusinessGreen reports on the energy measures included in the king’s speech, which it notes was delivered as prime minister Keir Starmer attempts to “head off escalating leadership speculation”. The outlet notes that “one of the most detailed sections of the speech” set out plans for a new energy independence bill “designed to accelerate clean energy development and curb reliance on imported fossil fuels”. It reports that the king said: “My ministers believe that energy independence must be a long-term goal of national security and that the nation’s energy security requires long term investment and reform, as demonstrated by recent events in the Middle East. Increased production of clean British energy will help to ensure that enemies of the United Kingdom cannot attack the economic security of the British people.” The Financial Times says the bill will “pave the way to create a new ‘warm homes agency’, force landlords to invest in home upgrades and ensure [energy regulator] Ofgem acts as a consumer champion”. The Times, Reuters and BBC News also highlight the energy independence bill in their coverage of the legislative package.

In an article looking at what Labour policy might look like after Starmer, the Financial Times says the Labour Growth Group caucus of MPs wants to reform the energy market to “prioritise cheaper electricity through competition to build transmission capacity, lower prices in areas with abundant renewables and a ‘use it or lose it’ rule for grid connections”.

MORE ON UK:

• Politico: “UK faces multi-billion pound bill for nationalising British Steel”.
• DeSmog looks at how Reform’s control of 24 councils will impact local climate policies.
• The Daily Express reports on criticism of energy secretary Ed Miliband from Tory MP Alicia Kearns who reportedly said the UK’s “green energy system” hands “Beijing a kill switch over our economy”.
• The climate-sceptic Daily Telegraph carries criticism of Miliband from Claire Coutinho and Richard Tice over plans to include a legal prohibition on new oil drilling in the “energy independence bill”.
• The Daily Telegraph covers misleading claims from car industry figures that the industry is not meeting the UK zero emission vehicle mandate target. [For more on the ZEV mandate, see Carbon Brief’s recent factcheck.]
• The Advertising Standards Authority has banned two adverts promoting the benefits of British beef and milk for including misleading claims about emissions, reports the Daily Telegraph.

In the Guardian, columnist Jonathan Liew reflects on the “radical” politics of broadcaster and naturalist David Attenborough, who he notes has been warning about “manmade climate catastrophe, in increasingly shrill and alarming terms, for about two decades”. Liew notes that Attenborough’s “activism and worldview remained entirely hidden” at the broadcaster’s recent televised 100th birthday celebration event, where the climate crisis was “not mentioned once”. This, Liew notes, is the Attenborough “with which our public discourse is most comfortable”. He continues: “Perhaps there are more difficult questions to negotiate here: the extent to which he has been a force for the meaningful and revolutionary change he seeks, and the extent to which his broad, inoffensive appeal has been more hindrance than help, allowing the powerful to feign concern for the planet while shirking the tough and bloody compromises required to secure it’. Overall, however, Liew concludes: “Attenborough has always understood the importance of spectacle over polemic. Show trumps tell every time. And while there remains a sizeable minority on the anti-net-zero right that has unsuccessfully tried to turn him into a hate figure…he remains trusted and credible, perhaps even the only eco-socialist in Britain whom the rightwing press hasn’t tried to hound out of a job.”

In climate-sceptic commentary, the Daily Mail runs an editorial arguing the king’s speech – a “paint-by-numbers checklist of Left-wing gibberish” – “reminded us yet again of the government’s reaching net-zero as quickly as possible”. The Sun says the “energy independence bill” will “idiotically…bring in laws banning new North Sea oil and gas drilling – despite the UK facing the biggest ever global energy shock triggered by the Iran war”. A Daily Telegraph editorial also criticises the plans to legislate an end to North Sea fossil fuel extraction, arguing that the move will “kill the industry for good”. Elsewhere, in the Daily Telegraph, “independent energy consultant” Kathryn Porter falsely claims that the UK’s high electricity prices are due to renewable energy in a column headlined “Ed Miliband’s net-zero plan seems more ludicrous by the day”. Meanwhile, the Daily Express’ personal finance editor Harvey Jones says the prospect of Ed Miliband as prime minister is “chilling”, warning that “no tumble dryer will be safe”. 

MORE COMMENT

• Amid the Trump-Xi talks, a New York Times editorial says Trump has “diluted instruments of American power”, including by “cut[ting] funding for scientific research, diminishing American prowess in AI, green energy and other realms”.
• For Reuters, Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership CEO Lindsay Hooper says the current energy crisis has “forced open” a debate between “[energy] transition advocates” and “fossil-fuel interests”.
• On the Climate Cafe substack, Gary Yohe, a professor of economics and environmental studies, explores how the US legal system will be impacted by the rescinding of the “endangerment finding” and the removal of a climate-science chapter from a reference manual for federal judges.
• In an editorial on the electricity and water demand of datacentres, the Washington Post says that creating a “vision” for such infrastructure “starts with taking people’s concerns seriously [and] getting the facts right”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Cecilia Keating, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Robert McSweeney.

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