Dozens of nations have called out “coordinated attacks” by countries with “fossil-fuel interests” that are undermining the role of climate science in the UN negotiations at the mid-year talks in Bonn, Germany, according to Climate Home News. The outlet reports that diplomats from Fiji, Nepal, the EU, Switzerland, Sierra Leone and Panama said the process should be based on the “best available science”, specifically the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). While countries have not been “called out by name”, Agence France-Presse cites the independent Earth Negotiations Bulletin, which says Saudi Arabia and India have opposed specific language about elements of climate science and IPCC input. Table Briefings reports that “the 1.5C target is increasingly being challenged, and the role of the IPCC in the global stocktake remains controversial”. [This references the question of whether to change IPCC reporting timelines to align with the next “stocktake” of global climate action. See Carbon Brief’s reporting on this issue from the last IPCC meeting.]

The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) monthly report on the oil market has taken its first look at the aftermath of the Iran war, forecasting a “glut of oil” emerging next year if the peace deal between the US and Iran holds, according to the Financial Times. The newspaper says countries such as the United Arab Emirates are “poised to expand production”, while Saudi Arabia has said it can return to its pre-war levels in just three weeks. Reuters notes that the IEA says the oil market will “move into a significant supply surplus in 2027 after recovering from ​the closure of the Strait of Hormuz”. The newswire quotes the IEA, which says a surplus could “provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to ⁠build new strategic reserves, as countries review their energy strategies and policies in response to the crisis”.

MORE ON ENERGY CRISIS

• The Associated Press reports that the Iran war has “reinforced Europe’s stance that it must forge alternative trade and energy routes”, including new long-distance electricity transmission lines.
• Goldman Sachs says oil flows going through the Strait of Hormuz may only recover to about 70% of their pre-war level, with “regional producers leaning on alternative routes”, according to Bloomberg.
  

The US Trump administration has announced it will pay $765m so that project developer Invenergy terminates four wind-power leases off ​the coasts of New York, California and Maine, reports the New York Times. The newspaper notes that, in exchange, the company says it will put that money toward the development of at least five new gas-fired power plants in the Midwest, as well as geothermal projects. The Financial Times notes that the deal “follows similar arrangements between the administration and companies holding US offshore wind leases”. Reuters explains that these moves are “part of a wide-ranging effort” by the Trump administration to stop ​US offshore wind projects, “which it regards as costly and inefficient”. The Associated Press notes that the latest deal brings the total amount spent on agreements with wind companies to nearly $2.6bn.

MORE ON US

• Solar power overtook coal in US electricity generation in May, marking “the first time the renewable source bested the fossil fuel in a calendar month”, reports the Los Angeles Times.
• Despite the shift in US politics, “about two-thirds of Americans say they are worried about the climate crisis”, according to long-standing Yale University polling covered by the Guardian.
• The Financial Times reports that young tech founders “backed by Silicon Valley and Trump” are racing to start up nuclear reactors to power AI data centres, “despite experts’ safety fears”.
  

Conservative shadow energy secretary Claire Coutinho has said the UK’s Labour government is “destroying” jobs in Scotland with its oil-and-gas policies, ahead of today’s by-election in Aberdeen South, according to the Press Association. Aberdeen is the heart of the UK’s oil-and-gas industry and the newswire reports that Coutinho said the government is “happy for Britain to get its oil and gas from Russia or Qatar, but not from Aberdeen”. [See Carbon Brief’s factcheck: “Nine false or misleading myths about North Sea oil and gas.”] The Times says the Conservatives are “quietly confident” they can win the by-election due to the importance of the industry. The newspaper notes that the Scottish National Party (SNP) “remain the bookmakers’ favourites”, although some voters are “disillusioned” with the party’s stance on oil and gas. The Guardian also reports that the election is seen as a “straight fight between SNP and Tories over energy policy”. The Daily Telegraph covers a claim by the GMB union, which is currently led by a net-zero sceptic, that the “renewables sector pays wages up to 30% lower than the oil and gas industry”.

MORE ON UK

• The “most famous tree in the world” – Sherwood Forest’s 1,000-year-old “Major oak” – has died, reports the Guardian, adding: “Like other ancient oaks, the tree has been repeatedly stressed by the heat and drought of global heating.”
• Wes Streeting, who reportedly plans to trigger a Labour leadership contest in the hope of becoming prime minister, tells the Daily Mail that he “[doesn’t] think we should stick to short-term arbitrary targets”, when asked about the 2030 goal to decarbonise the country’s electricity.
• Bloomberg says Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch will set out plans to make the UK “investable” in a City of London speech, including a plan to cut energy costs.
• The UK and Belgium have signed a deal to facilitate cross-border carbon dioxide (CO2) transport and storage, reports BusinessGreen.
• Reform UK-led Wakefield council has voted to rescind its climate and biodiversity emergency declaration from 2019, according to BBC News.
  

The EU “did not manage” to cut its greenhouse gas emissions last year, with preliminary data showing a slight increase in levels compared to 2024, reports Politico. The outlet says estimates published by Eurostat show that the bloc’s emissions rose by around 1% to 3.34bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) last year. While the figures are not broken down by source, previous data shows that emissions in some sectors, notably transport, are “stagnant” and, therefore, require the EU to “boost efforts” to decarbonise. The Brussels Times notes that EU emissions have still dropped substantially over the past decade and are now 17% lower than in 2015.

Meanwhile, data provided to Reuters ⁠shows that new electric vehicle registrations rose 34% year-on-year in May across 17 markets in the EU. The newswire says “rising fuel prices driven by the Iran ​war” have helped to boost demand in recent months, adding that “some executives warn interest could fade if petrol costs fall”.

MORE ON EU

• EU governments have “cut back” a plan to raise funds for large cross-country energy infrastructure projects, such as interconnectors, according to negotiating texts seen by Reuters.
• The European Data Centre Association says Europe “must prioritise artificial intelligence over its immediate climate ambitions or risk surrendering its tech sovereignty to China”, according to Politico.
• As Ireland takes over the six-month presidency of the EU Council, Politico reports that it is preparing to “play dealmaker” on the EU’s “biggest climate fight of the year” – referring to emissions trading system negotiations.
• A Global Witness study, in partnership with US climate scientists, suggests EU oil and gas firms are projected to cause at least $1.5tn in global climate damages, according to BusinessGreen.
• Agence France-Presse reports that Spain, which is “considered a frontline region for climate change”, recorded its third-warmest year on record in 2025.
  

China will continue to use its “dual-carbon” goals as a “guiding framework”, accelerate the “green transformation” of economic and social development, and make “greater contributions” to global climate governance, says Ministry of Ecology and Environment vice-minister Li Gao, in comments covered by Beijing News, at China’s National Low-Carbon Day. Li also said that during the 15th “five-year plan” period, China will give “equal weight to mitigation and adaptation”, calling for the country to control greenhouse gas emissions while “actively addressing the adverse impacts and risks of climate change”, reports the 21st Century Business Herald. China will also “actively” respond to “carbon-related trade barriers”, strengthen controls on non-CO2 greenhouse gases and enhance its capacity to address climate change, particularly extreme weather events, it adds. During the event, the government also released reports on its climate adaptation progress and carbon-accounting system, reports state news agency Xinhua.

MORE ON CHINA

• A new government white paper says citizens “should be able to truly feel that countries are taking action” to address climate change and that developed countries should fulfil their commitments on climate finance, reports Xinhua.
• A new five-year plan on employment calls for “unlocking employment potential” through developing “new energy system” projects, says China News Service.
• A comment article published by People’s Daily under the byline of the NDRC calls for deepening “targeted energy-saving and carbon-reduction actions in key sectors”. 
• China has called on certain regions to pursue “solar-plus-desertification control” projects while ensuring renewable energy consumption, reports BJX News.
• Bloomberg says China’s climate goals now depend on cutting carbon emissions in “hard-to-electrify sectors”, according to a new report by climate thinktank Agora.
• PV Magazine: “China proposes PV product grading system in bid to drive industry consolidation.”

Karina Von Schuckmann, an author of the Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) report and senior adviser of Mercator Ocean International, writes in the Guardian about how the ocean has been “our greatest and most uncomplaining ally” against climate change, as it absorbs so much of the world’s excess heat. However, she adds: “Ocean warming and more frequent and intense marine heatwaves are signs that the buffer is straining. The heat we have poured into the ocean is beginning to surface as harm.” Von Schuckmann writes that more frequent and intense marine heatwaves are one of the signals identified in the new IGCC report, a “health check” on the climate system compiled by more than 70 researchers. [See a recent guest post about the IGCC report published by Carbon Brief.] She also warns that scientists are losing the ability to monitor these changes due to funding cuts and the closure of monitoring sites. She concludes: “Nearly every indicator of climate change is flashing red, but citizens, businesses and policymakers still hold the tools available to bring the planet back into balance.”

MORE COMMENT

• The UK Conservative shadow energy secretary, Claire Coutinho, has written a comment piece for the Daily Telegraph in which she attacks her Labour counterpart Ed Miliband and his support for net-zero policies.
• David Roberts features an interview on his Volts podcast with UK climate minister Katie White, titled: “Can the UK stay the course with its climate plans?”
• A “long read” by ecology professor John Drake in the Guardian – titled, “Can ecosystems ‘malfunction’?” – notes that “any standards of operation we find in nature have come directly from our own desires for things such as climate stability”.
• A group of scientists has a comment piece on the Climate Cafe substack titled: “A strong El Niño likely is coming, ready or not.”
• Lakshmi Mittal, executive chair of steel manufacturer ArcelorMittal, writes in the Financial Times about the need to reform the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS), so that it “strengthens Europe’s resilience and economic security”.

This edition of the Daily Briefing was written by Josh Gabbatiss, with contributions from Henry Zhang and Anika Patel. It was edited by Leo Hickman.

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