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TODAY'S CLIMATE AND ENERGY HEADLINES
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Every weekday morning, in time for your morning coffee, Carbon Brief sends out a free email known as the “Daily Briefing” to thousands of subscribers around the world. The email is a digest of the past 24 hours of media coverage related to climate change and energy, as well as our pick of the key studies published in peer-reviewed journals.
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Today's climate and energy headlines:
- US to release 50m barrels of oil from reserves
- Climate change worries beat Covid and economy as biggest concern for Britons after COP26
- German parties agree on 2030 coal phase-out in coalition talks – sources
- Greenland lost the most ice from iceberg calving and ocean melt on record this year
- COP26 kept the world’s 1.5C limit in reach – now we will steer it over the line
- Nuclear fusion: why the race to harness the power of the sun just sped up
- Projections of cold air outbreaks in CMIP6 earth system models
News.
The US has announced the release of 50m barrels of oil from its strategic reserves in an effort to temper petrol prices and, the Financial Times reports, “snuff out a crude market rally that the [Biden] administration has said poses a threat to the global economic recovery”. The move is being coordinated with China, India, South Korea and the UK, the paper says, adding: “The UK will release 1.5m barrels and India will release 5m barrels. Volumes from other countries have not yet been confirmed.” The FT reports: “[T]he effort to drive down oil prices that have doubled in the past year appeared to backfire, as Brent, the international crude benchmark, closed 3.3% higher at $82.31 a barrel on Tuesday.” It adds: “Analysts said it was unlikely to have the effect on prices Biden hoped it would and that it was a misuse of the emergency reserve.” The Times says the move is “part of an unprecedented bid by the world’s leading consumer nations to combat escalating energy prices”, in an article headlined: “US takes on Opec with oil release.“ The paper reports: “The release from the US strategic petroleum reserve, the world’s largest supply of emergency crude oil, exceeds previous interventions by the country during the Libyan uprising a decade ago and the Gulf War in 1991.” It continues: “The White House is trying to curtail elevated petrol prices and energy bills. President Biden’s approval ratings have dropped amid heightened inflation and his officials are starting to look ahead to next year’s mid-term elections.” Reuters reports that pump prices will drop following the release, according to Biden. It quotes him saying: “It will take time, but before long you should see the price of gas drop where you fill up your tank, and in the longer-term we will reduce our reliance on oil as we shift to clean energy.” The Press Association reports on the UK government decision to join the US effort, quoting the prime minister’s spokesperson saying: “We will work closely with our international partners like the US to do what we can to support the global economy through the transition following the pandemic.” The newswire notes that oil prices have doubled over the past year. The Daily Telegraph says the joint effort is aiming to release a combined 70m of oil onto the market.
Analysis for Reuters says the decision “represents a unique bet that finding common ground with the US’s biggest economic rival [China] can help dampen fuel prices for middle class Americans”. It quotes one analyst saying it is a “new era of oil diplomacy for the US to coordinate with India and China”. In the Financial Times, the Energy Source briefing asks what the decision means for Biden’s energy agenda. It says: “The effort to drive down oil prices comes even as Biden continues to push policies to wean America off fossil fuels.” It continues: “It’s been a little over a year since Joe Biden was elected the 46th president of the US, with a promise to put climate change – the ‘number one issue facing humanity’ – at the heart of his administration. Now the president’s lofty ambitions to clean up America’s energy landscape are being pushed through the meat grinder of America’s legislative and regulatory machinery.” An editorial in the Washington Post says the move “won’t lower your gas prices”. It says: “Long-term, there are only two ways to minimise the punishing effects of oil price volatility: increasing domestic oil production and decreasing domestic oil consumption. Increasing US oil production would bypass OPEC and limit the geopolitical clout of predatory nations such as Russia. Yet this makes sense only as a transitional policy. Over time, the country must cut its dependence by encouraging more fuel-efficient and electric cars, investing in public transit and better planning communities.” In the Wall Street Journal, an editorial cites Milton Friedman in arguing: “Sorry, Mr President. Markets know that this political gesture won’t fix the supply shortage and could make it worse.” An article for the Hill asks if the move will ease prices and concludes: “Experts say it’s unlikely.”
Public concern in the UK over climate change and pollution rose to be the leading cause for worry during the COP26 climate summit, reports the i newspaper. The poll, conducted by Ipsos MORI, reveals climate change and environmental issues “surged to its highest level since 1988” this month, the paper says, “jumping 16 percentage points on October levels”. One in five people said environmental concerns are the single biggest issue for the country, with 40% choosing it as one of their top three issues of concern, the paper explains. The poll shows “a fairly even distribution of climate concern across age groups, genders and political affiliation”, notes CNN, with Conservative and Labour supporters “equal in their concern for climate issues”. BusinessGreen quotes Leo Barasi – a former pollster and author of The Climate Majority – who says the findings highlight a “remarkable turnaround in public opinion”. He adds: “Four years ago the environment wasn’t even a top 15 issue with the public, with only seven per cent naming it as a top priority…Since then we’ve had a string of heatwaves and floods, UN science reports and mass public protests – and opinion has changed dramatically.”
In other UK news, the Guardian reports on concerns from “industry leaders” that plans o mandate electric car chargers across all new homes from next year risks making access to charge points “exclusive”, leaving behind motorists from poorer areas. The paper explains: “Senior voices in the energy and motoring sectors said the plan for all new homes and buildings to be fitted with car charging infrastructure risks benefiting wealthier areas with space for off-street parking and leaving ‘blackspots’ in areas where homes have less space.”
A BBC News investigation has uncovered a “black market” in hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) being smuggled into the UK from eastern Europe. While the UK and EU are phasing out HFCs, the investigation finds gases made in China being smuggled across the Romania-Ukraine border “in the boots of cars or in lorries” for sale by local traders in the UK and elsewhere.
Finally, the Press Association reports on the Climate Education Bill being put forward by Labour MP Nadia Whittome. She told MPs in a speech in the House of Commons that making climate education mandatory in schools would “prepare young people for the future”. The outlet notes that the bill “was listed for a second reading on 28 January next year, but is unlikely to become law due to a lack of parliamentary time”. (For more on the climate change gaps in UK school curricula, see Carbon Brief’s recent guest post.)
Germany’s Social Democrats (SDP), Free Democrats and Green Party have agreed to phase out coal by 2030, as negotiations for the country’s first-ever three-way coalition are finalised, reports Reuters. The newswire adds: “The three parties have also agreed to end power generation from gas by 2040, sources involved in the coalition talks told Reuters. In addition, gas heating systems would be banned in new buildings and replaced in existing buildings, they said. An end to sales of new combustion engine cars would come by 2035, coinciding with European Commission plans, said the sources. The Greens had wanted an earlier date.” In other news from Germany, EurActiv covers a report published by lobby group Association of German Industries (BDI), which says the incoming government will need to mobilise €860bn (£723bn) to meet its climate goals by 2030.
Elsewhere in Europe, Bloomberg reports on the rising price of coal, as the fuel shortage continues into winter. It says: “Coal plants in Germany remain significantly more profitable than gas plants, even as the benchmark intraday price for the dirtier fuel rises to its highest level in a month and carbon trades near a record above 70 euros.”
Meanwhile, European lawmakers have approved a reform to the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) to “align the bloc’s agricultural policy with its climate objectives”, reports Climate Home News. Under the reform, farmers receiving funding from the CAP will need to dedicate 3% of their arable land to protecting biodiversity. Farmers will also have the opportunity to apply to “ecoschemes”, providing rewards for “climate and environmentally friendly practices”, the outlet reports. Youth activists and green groups have criticised the reform as insufficient, with one Green MEP calling it “a mess”. (For background, read Carbon Brief’s Q&A about the Common Agricultural Policy.)
The Greenland ice sheet has lost more ice than it has gained for the 25th year in a row, the Washington Post reports, with a net total loss of “166 gigatones of ice from September 2020 through August 2021”. It continues: “This year, scientists calculated that around 500 gigatons were lost to iceberg calving and ocean melt – the highest in 35 years of satellite records.” Scientists say they are concerned for the future of the ice sheet, the Washington Post reports, quoting NASA’s Josh Willis: “With every decade warmer than the last, breaking records is the new normal. The ice sheet is in for a wild ride.“ For more detail, see the guest post published by Carbon Brief last week.
Meanwhile, New Scientist covers a new study published in Nature Communications which finds that trees “cool the land surface temperature of cities by up to 12C”. Researchers have used satellite data from nearly 300 European cities to measure land surface temperature, the article explains, and find “that the cooling provided by treeless green spaces is negligible.” With extreme heat becoming increasingly prevalent in cities, Zhihua Wang at Arizona State University tells New Scientist that “[this study] provides an important guide to urban practitioners for deploying urban trees as an effective urban heat mitigation strategy”.
Separately, warmer water temperatures resulting from climate change are putting stress on albatross relationships, the Guardian reports. Authors of a Royal Society study have found that in years with unusually warm water temperatures, rates of albatross divorce rise from the usual 1-3% to up to 8%. One of the authors, Francesco Ventura, tells the newspaper that one reason for this is the “partner-blaming hypothesis”: female albatrosses blame their partners for higher stress levels caused by the harsher environment.
Comment.
COP26 president Alok Sharma has penned an opinion piece in the Guardian saying that the Glasgow climate pact is a “historic agreement” with which “we kept the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels in reach”. He notes that COP26 was the biggest political gathering ever held in the UK, and says that “all parties can be proud” of the Glasgow climate pact. He continues: “The cooperation we have seen in this process should give the world hope. In a world of fractured global politics, countries have shown a unity of purpose on the issue of climate. Yes, there were difficulties with these negotiations, particularly in the final hours when an agreement looked in real jeopardy. But overall we saw a willingness from countries to compromise. There was growth in trust between nations, and a genuine determination to reach agreement… After six years of wrangling, COP26 also finalised the outstanding elements of the Paris rulebook – the rules governing the Paris agreement – the resolution of which will unleash its full potential.” He also notes progress made outside of negotiations, including the Just Energy Transition Partnership with South Africa and deforestation pledge. He concludes: “With so many positive announcements, it could be tempting to become complacent. But this would be a mistake. The 1.5C limit lives. We brought it back from the brink. But its pulse remains weak…And this is why the UK’s work as the COP26 presidency is really only just beginning. Over the course of the next year, we will work with countries, urging them to take action and honour their promises. There is no formal policing process in the UN framework convention on climate change system, and so we must keep up the constructive pressure, and build on the trust and goodwill generated through COP26.” The Guardian also has an accompanying news story about Sharma’s comments, which is headlined: “UK will press governments to stick to climate pledges, says COP26 president.”
Meanwhile, in the Financial Times, columnist Martin Wolf says that “despite signs of hope, scepticism is fully justified when it comes to the COP26 announcements”. He continues: “If we compare the global discussion today with that of a decade ago, we have come a long way. But if we compare it with where we need to be, there is still a frighteningly long way to go. It is too soon to abandon hope. But to be complacent would be absurd. We need to act powerfully, credibly and quickly and, not least, we must agree to do so together. The task is great and the hour late. We can no longer sit and wait.”
Tom Wilson, the FT’s senior energy correspondent, writes about “the potential of fusion energy” which he says “powers the sun to generate clean, never-ending electricity on Earth”. He adds that it is “one of science’s most complex problems” and “has tantalised scientists for decades but has always seemed just out of reach”. What was once a “Soviet-era idea” that has seen a series of “false starts” is now attracting “private participation”, with “private businesses in the sector worldwide at 35 and growing”. However, the piece quotes science writer Steven Krivit who says “until we see somebody delivering electricity cost effectively, we’re still doing science, we’re not doing technology”.
Meanwhile, in a comment piece for the South China Morning Post, political risk-consultant Adriel Kasonta writes that “the US-China joint declaration agreed at Glasgow is far more important than COP26 itself”. He writes that while “US president Joe Biden and the rest of the Western political class portrayed Chinese president Xi Jinping as a villain for not attending the event…Beijing had a delegation on the ground and announced a new action plan ahead of COP26”. He adds that while “the two biggest economies and polluters, US and China…seem to prefer to clash with each other…we are now at a point when they must cooperate” and “prove their global leadership”, by “tak[ing] the lead…through their joint economic clout…to ensure that developed countries immediately scale up their aid efforts”.
Separately, Adam Vaughan writes in New Scientist that the collapse of UK green energy pioneer Bulb “is not a big blow for renewables”. He says the company went “from a start-up to the UK’s seventh biggest energy supplier in six years by pricing electricity from wind and solar power at aggressively low levels, but “collapsed [yesterday] under the ongoing shock of high gas prices”. However, “Bulb folding is unlikely to deter investors”, he points out. Investment decisions either “hinge on a tried-and-tested financial model of winning contracts from the UK government for a guaranteed price”, or “by a big energy user such as a factory owner signing a deal for long-term, fixed-price supply” with a renewable developer. He concludes that “the way Bulb bought its green energy for households has little effect on either route”, even if it might be “a bad look for such a high-profile green energy firm to fail”.
Meanwhile, “oceanic oxygen levels are the next big casualty of global warming”, warn oceanographers Julie Pullen and Nathalie Goodkin in a comment piece for Scientific American. They point out that “water without adequate oxygen cannot support life, and for the three billion people who depend on coastal fisheries for income, declining ocean oxygen levels are catastrophic”. They say the “beyond enhanced monitoring of oxygen and the establishment of an oxygen accounting system”, an oxygen “agenda” must “fully val[ue] the ecosystem co-benefits of carbon sequestration by our ocean’s seaweed, seagrasses, mangroves and other wetlands…so-called ‘blue carbon’ nature-based solutions”.
Science.
A new study finds that cold air outbreaks – extreme weather events where significantly colder temperatures than usual persist for days on end – may disappear entirely by the mid-2050s. Researchers use five climate models and three emissions scenarios to simulate how the frequency of these events might change in the future; they also run the models back to 2015 to evaluate how well the models can replicate observed events. The scientists find that while cold air outbreaks may remain steady or even increase in frequency in the coming decades, the events disappear by the year 2054 in every model they study. However, they note that there are “large errors” in the projections in some regions of the world.